The “bubble of 5” no longer dissolves
The preformers have little news to tell the king. They cannot yet say with whom they will form a government. Talks with the Liberals and Greens have not yet yielded any results.
Nevertheless, De Wever and Magnette have already achieved a great deal. They have succeeded in drawing up a starting note, in which both N-VA and PS get their money’s worth. The one in the field of state reform. The other with social measures such as the 1,500 euro minimum pension. And there is also a tight “bubble of 5 parties”. Besides N-VA and PS, also CD&V, SP.A and CDH. That bubble is rock solid, they say. They no longer dissolve each other.
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Swallow two additional batches
The 5 parties do not yet have a majority. They have 70 seats out of 150 seats in the Chamber (if we include the expelled PS’er Emir Kir). So the question is where they find those 6 seats for a majority. They really only need one party. But they may have to take two sides for a majority. Open VLD and MR have joined together. Groen and Ecolo are also one and indivisible as a family.
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It doesn’t look like the liberals will be split up. During the short meeting yesterday afternoon with the preformers, the liberal presidents made it clear once again that they are “out together, at home together”. Egbert Lachaert (photo in text) and Georges-Louis Bouchez also demanded substantive adjustments to the starting note of the preformers. It did not come to real negotiations during the meeting of such an hour.
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(read more below the photo)
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Don’t keep Liberals on the line
The main message from the two presidents was that they want clarity quickly whether it be a government with the liberals or with the greens. They don’t want to be kept on a leash for weeks. They fear to be played off against each other like that.
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You shouldn’t ask us again until you’ve chosen the liberals and not the greens.
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That is why Lachaert and Bouchez said to the formateurs: “You should only ask us again when you have chosen the liberals and not the greens.” The two liberals have not received an answer. The preformers are already organizing a second meeting with the Greens early next week.
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A house of cards full of balances
Profound liberal adjustments to the De Wever / Magnette memorandum are very difficult. The text is a house of cards that is brimming with balance. The preformers fear that these will be jeopardized if a lot has to be changed. The liberals say that the memorandum is socio-economically too left-wing and is too far-reaching in terms of state reform. For example, the liberals want to reduce unemployment benefits more quickly over time and sway with budgetary concerns about higher minimum pensions.
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That is very difficult for the socialists. The liberals want to re-federalize and are holding back on regionalization. N-VA does not like that. In addition, the liberals do not want a government that is limited in time. While both N-VA and PS want to appease their supporters.
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An explosive community package
A coalition with the Greens is even more difficult, although the left-wing socialists see a government with them. At N-VA there is little enthusiasm for such a coalition. For the Greens, the preformation memorandum is socio-economically too right. They also believe that you should look for the climate with a magnifying glass in the memorandum. Moreover, that text is far too far-reaching for the Greens at Community level. “The antechamber of confederalism”, Ecolo president Nollet called the note.
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For Green leader Kristof Calvo (photo in text) the text says “an explosive community package”. Bart De Wever has also spoken many sharp words to the Greens before the elections. He once called Green “a shit party” and he would never rule with Ecolo. The door is still ajar, but everyone assumes that the Greens actually said “no”. They are used by the preformers as a means of pressure to make the liberals more compliant, something that the liberals should not know about.
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(read more below the photo)
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Belgian
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Reynders’ charm offensive
In the meantime, it seems almost impossible for “the bubble of 5” to separate Open VLD from sister party MR. It would be a huge loss of face for Open VLD president Lachaert if he returned to his sworn oath.
Especially at N-VA and SP.A you still hear a lot of mistrust towards MR chairman Bouchez. That he sabotages, plays games and cannot be trusted. In the meantime, he keeps quiet and no longer tweet provocatively. European Commissioner Reynders has also been called in for a charm offensive towards the PS, it can be heard. The fact that MR, Vivaldi, purple-green with CD&V, are advocated again, does not help to restore confidence at N-VA.
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It seems almost impossible for Open VLD to separate from MR.
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There is another argument as to why “the bubble of 5” is better filled with only one party. If two liberal parties are added, all parties except N-VA are superfluous to get a majority. As a result, no party can put pressure. The others can then say “go ahead” because there is still a majority left. At MR they put that into perspective. “No family is superfluous,” they say. The French-speaking liberals point out that SP.A was also not necessary for the Di Rupo government, but that this did not cause any problems as the socialist family pulled together.
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Minority government not a preferred scenario
If it doesn’t work with the Liberals or the Greens, then the “bubble of 5” can continue as a minority government. That is certainly not a preferred scenario and so far rather a means of pressure to keep the liberals from making too many demands. PS chairman Magnette is not in favor because he would rather not have a French-speaking minority. As an opposition party, the PS has strongly criticized the Michel government for not having a majority on the French-speaking side.
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Moreover, Magnette will have problems in his Walloon government when MR is not there federally. The PS rules there with MR and Ecolo. Magnette can replace MR there with CDH, but that will give the French-speaking Greens a lot more weight. Now Ecolo is not necessary for a majority in the Walloon government. Moreover, Walloon liberal ministers such as Crucke and Borsus are not big fans of their capricious chairman Bouchez, it can be heard. So it would be painful to dismiss them for their chairman.
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If nothing works with the liberals or the greens, such a minority government with the bubble of 5 is perfectly possible. If 5 MPs abstain, they have the confidence. With 70 seats out of 150, the bubble of 5 has a “relative majority”, because it is impossible to form another majority, unless Vlaams Belang and PVDA join forces, together with a bunch of classic parties. That’s a totally unrealistic combination.
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Only liberal support for Wilmès government
The “bubble of 5” would then replace the Wilmès government. Prime Minister Wilmès has promised to ask for confidence again on September 17, at the reopening of the Chamber. That government will certainly not receive the confidence.
The Wilmès government has only 38 seats out of 150 seats in Parliament. Since CD&V is now in the “bubble of 5”, another 12 seats will be removed and only 26 will remain. That is a lot less than the “relative majority” of 70.
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(read more below the photo)
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Begging and making painful concessions
The 5 parties will then first have to start government negotiations. CDH chairman Prévot has said in the newspaper La Libre that he does not sign a blank check. He wants a state reform to lead to simplifications. So there will still have to be a heart word to be spoken.
If the government has gained confidence in the House from “the bubble of 5”, then it must seek support for concrete decisions from the Greens or the Liberals. It will always be begging and making painful concessions. That is why it is not a preferred scenario.
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De Wever and Magnette have actually achieved a lot in less than 3 weeks.
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The preformers still have time until September 17 when the Wilmès government loses confidence. At 3 pm the preformers report to the king. They will certainly get an extension of their assignment for one or two weeks.
The preformers De Wever and Magnette have actually achieved a lot in less than 3 weeks. With their starting note in which N-VA and PS have found the necessary balances. And with the forging of 5 parties. Still, it will be extremely difficult for De Wever and Magnette to get to a majority without suffering too many problems.
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Listen to Johny Vansevenant’s analysis in “The Morning” on Radio 1:
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