Despite sales up 9% and earnings per share above expectations in the first quarter of 2022, Apple is moving closer to the support zones of recent months than the resistance zones. In question, the sector of technology stocks still under pressure from the rise in rates, and in particular real rates (rates minus inflation, editor’s note) in the United States, but also because of the group’s warning on the impact of the lockdowns in China and the resulting logistical issues. This impact is estimated between 4 and 8 billion dollars for the turnover of the current quarter.
Tim Cook described this clearly when the results were released a few days ago: “We are facing many challenges, from supply chain disruptions caused by both Covid and chip shortages, to the devastation of war in Ukraine”. Despite these logistical disruptions, Apple stock is the most resilient of the GAFAMs with the smallest percentage decline from all-time highs recorded in 2021.
But this resilience will be put to the test once again this week with the publication of inflation figures for April in the United States. How can inflation figures influence the trajectory of Apple shares? Because a significant part of the drop in US tech stocks since the start of the year is due to the normalization of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in a context of high inflation. We recall that prices in the United States have risen in recent months to levels not seen since the beginning of the 1980s.
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After a test in mid-March, the $150 zone could once again be tested in the coming days. This is an important technical zone: it is both a Fibonacci retracement (23.6% of the entire post Covid rally) but also an oblique support zone that goes through several intermediate troughs formed between 2020 and 2021. The market may well be tempted to test this zone in the current monetary and geopolitical context.
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