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– The workload of hospitals for a week increased by another 10%
– The University of Washington with a new, very difficult prognosis for several countries, including Bulgaria
Bulgaria reported a new 24% increase in coronavirus infections last week.
For the second consecutive year there is an increase in mortality – by 23%. An average of 65 people a day died of COVID-19 at 53 weeks earlier.
With a record 80,288 tests, 13,677 new infections were identified, or an average of 1954 per day. 17% of the tests were positive. There are already 38,424 active patients – 5,700 more than the previous week.
There is also an increase of 24% in those admitted to hospitals. 21 percent is the increase in occupied intensive care beds. 503 are treated on such.
Hospitals and intensive care units are busy
at 60% of its maximum capacity
The critical threshold of 300 new patients per 100,000 population, after which there should have been a lockdown again, has already been passed at the national level. As of Tuesday, the number is 357. (See table.)
The escalation of the epidemic in Bulgaria prompted the Institute for Health Indicators and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington to drastically change its forecasts for the next 3 months. The current scenario predicted a peak by the end of March with about 70 casualties per day and from April the casualties would fall steadily until June. With the new forecast (from March 6) the expected maximum is again at the end of this month, but already with
an average of 178 dead per day
That would be a mortality rate of 25 per million, which is worse than the worst weeks of 2020.
Instead of the current estimated 14,000 victims as of June 1 (as of March 9, they are actually 10,614), 20,500 are expected.
Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland have similar nightmares. For the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the expected death rate at the end of March is 31 per million population, which would equal Portugal’s record a month ago. A level of 58 is forecast for Hungary, which sounds quite incredible, as the pandemic has never even approached such a mortality rate. Only three days after its publication, however
the new US forecast already gives serious deviations from reality
As of March 9, in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the estimated victims are 25% more than the real ones, and in Poland – by 40%. In Spain, the discrepancy is 2 and a half times, but in the opposite direction. Instead of the estimated 109, there are an average of 261 deaths.
There is almost no change at the top of the black list this week. Bulgaria is again in 5th place. Mortality is rising in almost all Balkan countries. The levels are relatively low so far. With more than 10 victims per million population, only Slovakia, Montenegro, the Czech Republic and Hungary.
In the world for another week the mortality rate goes down by another 4%.
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