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Beirut (AFP) – After a disagreement that has persisted since the eruption of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Moscow met on Wednesday the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers, in a move preceded by indications of a rapprochement between the two opponents that, according to analysts, would put Kurdish forces in the face of the most bitter choices.
What is the most important information available on the meeting and its expected impact on the US-backed Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which Ankara has long threatened to launch a ground attack against its areas of control in northern Syria?
What are the indications that preceded the meeting?
Before the conflict broke out in 2011, Turkey was a key economic and political ally of Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has befriended Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, their relationship turned upside down with the start of peaceful protests against the regime and Damascus forcibly repressing the demonstrations.
Since the closure of the Turkish embassy in Damascus in March 2012, Erdogan has repeatedly described Assad as a “criminal”, while the latter has described his Turkish counterpart as a “thief” and supporter of “terrorists”.
Turkey provided support to the political opposition and hosted its most prominent members in Istanbul, before starting to support armed opposition factions and shelter nearly four million refugees on its territory.
Although Turkey has launched three attacks against Kurdish fighters since 2016, which have allowed it to control large Syrian borderlands, it has not entered into a direct confrontation with Damascus except in a limited way in 2020, which soon ended with the Russian mediation.
After years of estrangement, signs of rapprochement have gradually emerged. On the sidelines of a regional summit in 2021, the foreign ministers of the two countries held a brief informal talk. In August, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called for reconciliation between the regime and the opposition in Syria.
And Ankara and Damascus have recognized the communication at the level of the intelligence services.
Coinciding with his threat to launch a ground offensive against the Kurds, Erdogan said in November that the possibility of meeting Assad was “possible”. And last month he renewed the reference to the possibility of the meeting taking place after meetings at the level of defense and foreign ministers.
Russia, according to analysts, plays a key role in achieving rapprochement between its two allies, who share a common “adversary” represented by Kurdish fighters.
What about the content and timing of the meeting?
Moscow has announced that talks between Russian defense ministers Sergei Shoigu, Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar and Syrian Ali Mahmoud Abbas touched on “ways to resolve the Syrian crisis and refugee issue” as well as “joint efforts to fight extremist groups”. without naming them.
The three countries praised the “positivity” during the meeting. Moscow and Damascus have stressed the need to “continue the dialogue” to restore stability in Syria.
The director of the Damascus Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Bassam Abu Abdullah, told AFP that the meeting “raised the level of the meetings between the two countries from a security level to a ministerial level”, emphasizing the need that ” the rational parties in Damascus and Ankara (…) to try to prepare public opinion for more meetings at the highest levels” in the next stage.
He specifies that the meeting was linked to “developments linked to the Turkish military operation which was foreseen in the north, and Moscow has worked to stop it”, considering that “the transfer of the meetings to the defense ministers means that there is an organization military field work that must be carefully coordinated between the three parties.”
The meeting came weeks after Turkey launched a series of air and artillery strikes on November 20 that mainly targeted Kurdish forces, and Erdogan threatened to launch a ground offensive to drive them away from his borders.
Ankara classifies the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces, as a “terrorist” organization and considers it an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against it.
Intermittent rounds of talks conducted by the Syrian government with the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which controls large areas in northern and eastern Syria, including the most important oil fields and large agricultural areas, which Damascus wants to recapture sooner or later have failed .
“Erdogan is under political pressure to launch a military operation in Syria and to bring back as many Syrians from Turkey as possible” to their country ahead of the Turkish elections in June.
“If Assad gives Erdogan the green light to launch air operations against the Kurds, war will soon follow,” he added.
Last week, Akar reported talks with Moscow to “open Syrian airspace” to Turkish fighters.
– What scenario awaits the Kurds?
The options available to the Kurds, who have fiercely confronted the Islamic State organization over the years of conflict, seem difficult, in the light of the common interests between the three countries to end their influence and weaken their supporter, Washington, which in recent weeks has contented itself with warning of the consequences of the escalation.
“The direct goal of the three countries is to eliminate the Syrian democratic forces,” Fabrice Balanche, a French researcher specializing in Syrian affairs, told AFP.
According to Balanche, Ankara wants to “eliminate the Kurdish threat” near its borders, while Russia seeks to “liquidate a US ally in Syria, namely the Syrian Democratic Forces, and thus strengthen its ally, Bashar al-Assad “.
As for Damascus, it wants to “recover the lands, especially its oil riches”, from the Kurds in the north-east of the country, burdened by their relationship with Washington, and expects Turkey to “eliminate the jihadists in Idlib”, referring to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), which with other factions controls the region, about half of the area of Idlib Governorate (northwest) and its surroundings.
In the event that the Kurds refuse to comply with Ankara’s renewed request to withdraw thirty kilometers from the border, the tripartite meeting will constitute the engine of a “Turkish invasion”.
“The Turkish offensive is only a matter of time,” said Balanche, “Erdogan needs a victory against the Kurds in Syria as part of his election campaign.”
© 2022 AFP
