If 2020 has been a year to forget, 2021 promises to be another complicated one. At least in what economic. Although the health crisis caused by the coronavirus seems to be under control or even extinction thanks to the vaccination that has already started in various parts of the planet, the economic crisis that the pandemic has left behind will remain for several years. Will be times of pressure for many in view of the growth of unemployment and the situation of ERTE in which millions of Spaniards are, although it is also true that the recession itself will cause goods such as housing or mortgages to fall in price with the arrival of the January slope. Others, such as vehicles, will not suffer the same fate and will see their prices increased due to the increase in taxes to cover the hole in the accounts caused by Covid-19.
Although homeowners have resisted lowering prices since the pandemic began, hoping that the crisis will be less deep than feared, the reality is that the housing market is heading for a certain setback in terms of prices. It refers because the increase in unemployment and the cut in wages caused by the coronavirus will impact demand. This is what almost all the experts believe, who predict falls ranging from 1.8% forecast by the risk rating agency S&P to 4-6% for Fitch. In between, the real estate consultancy CBRE leaves the decline at 2-3%. In the case of market rental, it is also very likely that the downward inertia already observed and that, according to the idealist portal, has led to historical falls in income this year in large cities such as Madrid, Barcelona or Seville.
Those who have already purchased the home and have a variable mortgage referenced to Euribor will continue to benefit from the historical lows recorded by the index. In December it has again pierced its historical minimum, approaching -0.5%, which has allowed mortgages that have to review their mortgage taking this data as a reference to save, in measure, 11.94 euros per month in the installment . For next year, everything indicates that will continue in negative territory given that the European Central Bank (ECB) is not willing to touch interest rates in view of the delicate situation that the continent’s economy is going through. It may, of course, that the Euribor is close to hitting the ground since it is approaching what the Eurobank charges banks for keeping their money, 0.5%.
If you are thinking of buying a new diesel or gasoline car, prepare to pay more as of January 1. Spain will be the only country that will increase taxes on cars by penalizing with an increase in the registration tax on cars that exceed the limit of 120 grams of emissions per kilometer according to the WLTP measurements established by the EU. This will cause increases in vehicle prices of between 800 and 6,000 euros, depending on its emissions. The sector has already warned that due to the delicate situation it is going through, they will not be able to assume the increase in the rate and will have to pass it on to the price of vehicles.
Those who are not going to change cars but need it for their trips will also be affected by the foreseeable rise in the price of fuel. The Government has begun the processing of the preliminary bill that provides for the creation National Fund for the Sustainability of the Electricity System, which will serve to progressively lower the electricity bill by removing the costs related to renewables, cogeneration and waste from the bill. This expense will be borne directly by the companies, including those of petroleum products, which will be the ones that feed the fund. The counterpart that the experts expect in exchange for the companies to nurture the fund is that, in the case of oil companies, they partially recover these contributions by raising fuel. Experts estimate that They will do it at about 7 cents a liter. Furthermore, if economic activity picks up pace with the vaccine, it is foreseeable that oil will rise and gasoline and diesel will lag behind.
The purpose of creating this Fund for the electricity system is that, progressively, the receipt of light is getting cheaper to be 13% below the current average within five years. That means that, if it is approved next year, it should already lower the price of energy somewhat. However, it is not expected that the bill will decrease significantly among other reasons because although the weight of renewable energies is every day greater in the energy mix -on Monday they contributed 85% of the energy produced-, this type of sources continues being insufficient to cover the total energy demand, which forces to pull other more expensive ones.
The Tariff of Last Resort (TUR) for natural gas will rise by 5.97% on average from January 1 with respect to the current rate since October. Specifically, for an average TUR 1 customer, with consumption equal to or less than 5,000 kWh per year (hot water and kitchen) this will mean an increase of 4.6% in their bill, while for a TUR 2 customer, with consumption between 5,000 and 50,000 kWh per year (hot water and heating), the increase will be 6.3%. This increase is due to the significant rise in the cost of raw materials (+ 21.7%) in international markets compared to the previous update.
The Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda confirmed yesterday, as LA RAZÓN advanced in its edition of last day 14, that it will reduce in general 0.11% the rates of toll roads dependent on the State from 1 January 2021. The reduction will be less, of 0.08%, in the AP-66 Campomanes-León, AP-68 Bilbao-Zaragoza; AP-2 Zaragoza-Mediterráneo and AP-7 La Jonquera-Tarragona. It will also go up on the AP-7 Alicante-Cartagena, (0.89%), the AP-9 (0.92%) and on the AP-6 highway, Villalba-Adanero (0.74%).
In recent years, the appearance of various “low cost” operators has made mobile and internet bills cheaper. Next year, the fight between these companies to attract clients will continue very much alive. Of course, those who have convergent packages – telephone, mobile and internet – can be tempting their clothes. For now, Movistar has already announced that it will raise the price of its Fusion packages by two or three euros.