The escalation of tensions over the Eastern Ukraine case seems to have untied the Kremlin’s hands to express all its dreams and dreams of returning the world to the times of the USSR and the Iron Curtain.
For about two months now, strategists in Moscow have been putting totally unfeasible demands on the table, including a radical withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe, the withdrawal of weapons and forces, a ban on the Alliance from approaching Russia, and so on.
And now the country’s foreign ministry has directly touched on the issue of NATO’s withdrawal from Bulgaria and Romania, just so that the Kremlin can feel calm and secure and not be afraid to invade Ukraine.
To begin with, the probability that NATO will actually withdraw from the countries of Eastern Europe without them asking for it very clearly and very explicitly is close to zero.
The issue in this case, however, is that the real possibility of an invasion of eastern Ukraine is really small. Such a thing can be considered a bold and almost patriotic move in Russia, but it will cost too much for the Russian economy, not to mention the cost of human lives that will be lost.
It is an absolute fact that Russia is one of the most militarily powerful countries in the world, but there is no way to say that today’s Ukraine is toothless, after seven years of hardening its troops in this simmering conflict with separatists. forces in Donbass, and the army went through an unprecedented stage of modernization at every level.
As if realizing this, Moscow is bringing its cause to the forefront – all the dreams and wet fantasies of the Kremlin’s military leadership are being set as a prerequisite for Russians to sit at the negotiating table with the West.
However, this is just another trick that Putin and his people use in this case. On the one hand, they dropped the involvement of European powers and Ukraine itself from the equation, addressing the United States directly as the only factor of influence.
On the other hand comes this big basket of desires and here the maxim is simple – if you want to achieve something specific, ask five times more than your opponent. Thus, when the negotiations reach the final right, you will have the opportunity to achieve the desired goal. If your negotiators are particularly skilled, you just get something else.
At the moment, Russia’s main desire is for NATO not to set foot on Ukrainian territory, as this puts tensions too close to Russia’s own borders. If Kiev joins the Alliance, it will mean that the Ukrainian authorities will have the opportunity to deploy NATO troops and weapons on their territory to ensure their security, which is unacceptable for President Putin and the military elite around him.
–
–
–
–
Russia’s common policy for a decade has been simple: all of the country’s neighbors must be weak, torn apart by internal problems, and therefore easily controllable.
Belarus continues to be a perfect example of this, and if we remember what Ukraine looked like before 2013, it will also give a clear idea of what the perfect neighbor would look like for them.
The truth is that for Russia the very idea that smaller countries can have their own policies is foreign. The mere notion that countries such as Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, Bulgaria, or any other former Soviet satellite could pursue their own interests does not sound plausible.
On the contrary – in Russian propaganda such countries must be controlled by foreign countries – the West or the United States in particular decides what to do with them, and their only moment of freedom is when they choose to be controlled by Moscow … which for some reason it doesn’t happen.
–
–
–
–
Because, so far, we have never seen a country that was really faced with a choice between tying with Russia or tying with the United States, which said to itself that it was better with Big Brother in the East.
And it remains for us to recall this lesson and ignore such noisy claims. Their goal is precisely this – to create excitement and “raise the stakes” in the race against NATO.
Although extremely offensive, such insinuations by Kremlin officials do not pose a real threat. They are barking at a dog who realizes how bad it will be if he actually starts biting.
–
