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Last week’s regional elections in Russia ended without much surprise – the ruling party United Russia won. However, without a number of minor surprises, the supporters of the poisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny won seats in the municipalities of two Siberian cities, while United Russia lost its majority in three city councils.
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In several regions, Russian voters voted for governors and regional assemblies, but in some regions, by-elections to the federal parliament also took place.
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The elections took place on 13 September, but two days before the previous vote took place. Opposition officials and election observers said the previous vote had eased falsification of election results.
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Despite strong opposition to opponents of the ruling party and suspicions of widespread falsification of results, in several places the election results have led to some not-so-pleasant surprises for Putin’s vertical.
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Given that the ratings of “United Russia” and President Vladimir Putin have been declining recently, the small surprises in the regional elections may be a harbinger of bigger and more unpleasant surprises for the upcoming Russian State Duma elections next year.
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The RFE / RL offers a brief overview of the major regional election events and their implications for the future.
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Navalny wins hospital bed
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Elections in Russia took place three weeks after the poisoning of Navalny in the Russian city of Tomsk. Navalny had come to Siberia to gather material on corruption in United Russia-controlled municipalities, as well as to promote a smart voting system that would call for a vote on politicians most likely to defeat United Russia candidates.
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On the way back from Tomsk, the poisoned Navalny first went to a hospital in Omsk, but was later transferred to clinic in Berlin, where he is currently continuing treatment.
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It was in Tomsk that the smart voting system was very successful – United Russia lost its majority in the elections, but two supporters of Navalny entered the city council – Ksenia Fadeyeva and Andrei Fateyev.
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Sergei Boyko, another ally of Navalny, won a seat in the Novosibirsk City Council.
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These successes of the opposition are small but symbolic. They confirm that Navalny has succeeded in creating a significant political force that attracts people who are tired of the systemic corruption of “United Russia”.
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At the same time, it is important that progress has been made outside Moscow and St Petersburg, where most of Russia’s most liberal people traditionally live. Success in Siberia has once again shown that Navalny and his policies also have supporters in the regions.
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The ruling party, the ruling victories
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The rating of the ruling party “United Russia” is currently at an all-time low. There is also some merit in it for Navalny, who for years has been telling even corruption in Putin’s system of power. Since 2012, Navalny has regularly called “United Russia” a “party of fraudsters and thieves”.
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The popularity of “United Russia” in recent years has also been negatively affected by the stagnation of the Russian economy, tax increases, as well as raising the retirement age. In an effort to distance themselves from the shattered image of “United Russia,” several party representatives often choose to run as “independent candidates.”
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Despite the downgrade, United Russia still retains power throughout Russia. The party’s candidates for governorship have won in all the regions where the governors’ elections took place last week.
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In several regions, the candidates for the post of governor of “United Russia” have received “cosmic” support even over 80%, which raises reasonable doubts about the fairness of the election.
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In many municipalities, the ruling party has gained smaller representation than in previous elections. This and the decline in the party’s popularity give the Kremlin serious concern that, if next year’s State Duma elections are fair, United Russia could fail.
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Experts do not even rule out the possibility that the Kremlin would start with a “new” party in the city council elections.
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Realizing that Navalny and his associates would not succeed in winning the “United Russia” in a fair way in Putin’s “controlled democracy”, they developed a system of smart voting.
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The system was a great success in last year’s Moscow City Council elections, where United Russia received a major “spanking”. Now, smart voting has once again worked in Tomsk, Novosibrish and elsewhere.
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This means that smart voting is a permanent feature of Russian political life and is expected to be further promoted and used in the next elections.
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“The main conclusion of the recent elections is one – voters must register in the smart voting system and vote according to our recommendations,” said opposition politician Ilya Yashin.
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“If we do everything wisely, next year, United Russia could lose its majority in the federal parliament,” he added.
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Putin’s elections in Russia have never meant transparency, fair competition and truthful results.
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However, according to the election observation organization Golos and other activists, the situation in this area has deteriorated rapidly in recent years.
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In the last election, the Golos received the highest number of complaints of various election irregularities in the last four years.
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Representatives of “Golos” predict that this negative trend will only continue.
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The elections in Russia are expected to be increasingly marked by disrespect for the law in the coming years, both for election commission staff and observers, which will further reduce electoral transparency.
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