This may mean that the number of new people who become infected will no longer grow so explosively, partly because of the measures announced by the cabinet on 9 July. Van Zelst: “But even before there was a significant relaxation on 26 June, the R-number was already well above 1. So it is really questionable whether the tightening will bring the R-number back below one.” So if the number stays above 1, you should see a clearer increase.
40 kilometers travel
Another possibility for the relative stagnation: Not enough tests are being processed right now. According to Van Zelst, there are indications for this: “When taking samples for making a test appointment, you see that people can sometimes only go to a day later and 40 kilometers away. The test streets are overcrowded.”
The GGD says that since the infections started to rise again, there has not been a moment when someone could not be tested in their environment within 24 hours, according to a spokesperson: “For example, you may not be able to be tested at your preferred location in Amsterdam, and in some regions you have to travel a little further, but we haven’t seen a capacity problem.” According to the GGD, the average time between test and appointment is 16 hours. Between 5 and 11 July, a total of 376,000 tests were administered. This week, not counting Saturday and Sunday, there are already 370,000, so the number of tests from a week earlier will be surpassed.
But is that enough? The percentage of positive tests is between 14 and 15 percent. The World Health Organization measure is a maximum of 10 percent. Above that, there is a good chance that you will miss infections because you are not testing enough suspected cases. Van Zelst: “If people have to travel far and have to wait a long time for the results, there is a risk that they will not be tested.”
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