Both Ukrainian and British intelligence, as well as a number of experts, believe that a new mobilization of Russian forces for the war in Ukraine may be imminent.
Statements from the Russian authorities now indicate that a new group may risk being sent to war in a new mobilization.
Millions of people from countries of the former Soviet Union, especially the poorer countries of Central Asia, live and work in Russia.
Many of these have worked long enough to obtain citizenship in Russia in addition to – or instead of – their home countries. Should Putin get serious about sending these into the war, he can expect trouble, say experts.
– Has a duty
In a longer interview with state-controlled persons Rossiyskaya Gazeta states the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Aleksandr Bastrykin, that the Russian authorities are also considering mobilizing new citizens for the war.
– By obtaining Russian citizenship, they get not only rights, but also duties according to the legislation. One of them is to serve in Russia’s military, says Bastrykin to Rossiiskaja Gazeta.
In the interview, Bastrykin points in particular to migrants from the three countries of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. He claims that 550,000 people from there have received Russian passports in the last five years, 60,000 of them in 2022.
Bastrykin confirms in the interview that the Russian authorities are actively considering sending these new citizens to the war in Ukraine.
– They have a duty, he tells the newspaper.
– Provoking Putin violently
New development
At the same time, there are now reports that migrant workers from Central Asia with dual Russian citizenship have been prevented from leaving at the border, on the grounds that they are on mobilization lists.
According to Radio Free Europe, many people from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have now left Russia for fear of a new wave of mobilization.
Should Russia choose to take it seriously, there will be a new twist in Russia’s warfare in the neighboring country. So far, it has not been reported that people with dual citizenship have been mobilized.
– If you were a little suspicious, you could think that there is a way to reduce the risk of protest in the core Russian population. Those with dual citizenship tend to have a slightly looser connection to Russian society, says Jørn Holm-Hansen, senior researcher at NIBR at OsloMet.
– Putin turns his back
He points to parallels with the recruitment technique the Russian authorities have used so far in the war, where they have largely sourced personnel from poor sub-republics in the provinces at a safe distance from the middle class and the population of the and prosperous large cities.
However, he believes that the risk of such a move could be great. Both Kyrgyzstan and its neighboring countries in Central Asia such as Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have initially had close cooperation with Russia, but have increasingly distanced themselves since the outbreak of the war.
– If it is true that Putin is focusing on mobilizing boys with dual citizenship, it will not be well received by the leaders of the Central Asian countries. It will accelerate developments in which close allies turn their backs on Putin.
– Hardly worth the damage
Lieutenant-General Arne Bård Dalhaug does not think this will lead to much progress either, especially if the other countries’ authorities get involved.
– I don’t think Putin can afford to damage relations with Kyrgyzstan unnecessarily. It is hardly worth the damage to enlist a few soldiers, he says.
Senior specialist adviser at the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, Ivar Dale, has lived in and worked with Central Asia for a number of years.
He shares the analysis that the move would have been risky for Putin.
He points to the migrants from the very poor republics in Central Asia who do not feel much patriotism towards Russia, but typically prefer to have a Russian passport because it gives them far better rights there.
– I would think it could be quite expensive both politically and socially. There can be very strong reactions, he says.
– There have already been demonstrations against the war outside the Russian embassy in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan. Should they see that Kyrgyz are being forcibly sent in large numbers, there could quickly be a row.
– Putin is desperate
– Stopped
Radio Free Europe has interviewed a Kyrgyz man who claims he was stopped on his way across the border between Russia and Kazakhstan, 22 December 2022.
– Russian border guards politely explained to me that I was included on a mobilization list, and that I had no right to travel abroad before 12 February, says Bekbolat, a Kyrgyz in his 50s, to Radio Free Europe.
The news website refers to him only by his first name.
The claims have not been verified, but according to the news website, several people with dual Russian citizenship have been prevented from leaving Russia for the same reason.
