Last Sunday,JapanA brand new variant was discovered on the 4 passengers arriving from BrazilNew coronal disease.The first important one discovered in February last yearVariant virusD614G started, and laterUnited Kingdom, South Africa andJapanThree new variants discovered,New coronal diseaseMore and more, more and more serious. This can’t help but cause people to worry: where will the next epidemic go? Will our current vaccines, masks, and social distance be as effective as before?
Beginning with the variants in South Africa and Japan, the “key” for the virus to enter the human body has changed by 1/3
Before talking about virus mutation, let me talk about an important question. In order for the new coronavirus to infect a person, it needs to use the “spike protein” on its surface to bind to receptors on human cells. Spike protein and cells have 6 main “binding sites”, which are equivalent to 6 key “keys” for viruses to enter the human body.
In February last year, the first mutant virus D614G of concern appeared. However, it did not change much and did not affect the binding site, so it did not cause concern.
Last September, there appearedUnited KingdomVariant virusB117, which has one of six binding sites, started to cause some concerns, but it was basically optimistic because the vaccine seemed to be effective.
However, in the South African variant and the new variant discovered in Japan, the six binding sites have changed by two, which is equivalent to the deformation of the key to enter the human body by 1/3. This has to make people worry.
The variant virus discovered in Japan, which is close to South Africa, changed the two binding sites of N501Y and E484K. Current studies have found that N501Y leads to an increase in transmission and infectivity by 50% to 70%; while E484K improves the ability of the virus to evade the human immune system, and may reduce the effectiveness of vaccines and antibodies in the body to prevent viruses.
Three waves of global epidemic rise, one wave is higher than one wave
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, the global epidemic has shown a three-wave upward trend, and one wave is higher than one wave.
Last year, in March and April, when the virus first spread from China to the world, it was still a small wave. In June and July, it was medium wave, which was the second spread worldwide. It was mainly driven by the mutant strain D614G. Although it did not change the receptor binding site of the spike protein, it affected the structure of the spike protein. Like, improve the communication power. In September and October, it has become the dominant strain in the world, and most viruses are of this type.
After October, the third wave appeared, when the mutant virus began to spread quietly. The slope of the third wave is significantly steeper and stronger than the previous two waves. If you look at the changes in the UK and Japan, it is even more obvious.
What is even more alarming is that the third wave of “platform period” has not yet arrived. Generally speaking, the spread of the virus first has a “rapid rise period”, which is an exponential rise; then it enters a “platform period”, which basically moves towards a stage of relief; and then it reaches a “decline period.” Any country wants to prevent and control, first of all to slow down the upward curvature of the curve, then slowly flatten it, and then slowly suppress it.
On January 6, 2021, Harvard University epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding cited the Danish National Serum Research Center (SSI), which is equivalent to combining the US CDC, National Institutes of Health and BARDA as An authoritative medical institution), and warned: because of the variant virusInfectivityVery strong. In the next few weeks, we will only be saved if the infection rate (R value) of the pandemic is suppressed to a level like the “purple line” (R=0.7); otherwise, in the spring, it will be “completely finished.” .
Variant viruses cause 2 concerns, which may affect vaccines, masks, and blockade effectiveness
The worries of Fedinger and many authoritative experts are not groundless. There are two main reasons why the variant virus has a serious impact:
1. InfectivityStrong, may affect the mask effect
After the virus mutated, its spreading power and contagious power increased. What does this mean? Suppose that when we wear a mask, there are 100 viruses in the air, the mask can block 90, and the remaining 10 viruses enter the body. If it is an old strain, 10 is not enough to cause infection, because the ability of the virus to bind to cells is not enough. But if it is a new strain with increased ability to bind to cells, 10 may be enough to cause infection.
2. The virus has a strong ability to reproduce, and the concentration in the air is higher
After the mutant virus’s ability to infect cells is strengthened, its ability to multiply in the respiratory epithelial cells in the nasal cavity and throat of the infected person will be strengthened. The first thing the virus adheres to is the cells in the nasal cavity and throat. After attaching, 10 viruses can spread to 100 cells, but now it may spread to 200. Therefore, the number of viruses that enter the air during breathing will also increase. Coupled with the increasing number of infected people, the virus concentration in the air in areas with high incidence of infection will increase.
Therefore, the original mask and social distance can play a certain protective role, but whether there is enough protection now, it is indeed a question mark.
On the other hand, according to the speed of transmission of the British variant, I am afraid that it will soon become the dominant strain of global infection. With the emergence of variants in South Africa and Japan, the changes are getting bigger and bigger, and the existing treatment methods and vaccine prevention and control may not be enough. If the virus is allowed to spread and mutate in this way, the consequences will be disastrous.
Since the beginning of the epidemic, masks, social distancing, and blockades have been implemented around the world, but now there is no way to block them down.
As soon as the vaccine appeared, the virus began to mutate in the direction of being separated from the vaccine; so far, humans have no drugs that can kill the virus. Where is the solution to this epidemic? Scientists are also looking for answers. (See the full video:[Anti-epidemic Body, Mind]A mutant virus may get out of control when the epidemic returns?）
In a troubled world, if you have a healthy mind, just lookHealth 1+1！
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Editor in charge: Li Jia◇
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