Sixty-eight minutes. That’s how long US President Joe Biden’s State of the Nation address was last Thursday. And while his opponents and supporters expected that once again, Biden would be “betrayed” by his age (he is 81 years old), by the blunders, the sardams, the awkward pauses, the American president made a surprise.
In an extremely combative and stentorian voice, he addressed Americans in his first major campaign speech ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, in which he is running for re-election against Republican Donald Trump. Although he has not been officially nominated by the Republican Party, after Super Tuesday (March 5) where Trump won 14 of the 15 caucuses in even states, the former president is certain to be the Republican nominee again. White House.
Will we therefore have a repeat of the 2020 Trump-Biden derby? Yes and no. Yes, because the candidates are the same persons. No, because 2024 is not 2020. And not only because the two candidates are four years older. Biden’s age is considered his biggest disadvantage, but Trump, 77, is no wolf either. In addition, Trump faces 91 charges for a range of serious crimes, from hiding classified government documents to inciting his followers to occupy the Capitol on January 6, 2021 – an attempt to overthrow the Republic. Having entrusted his defense to an army of lawyers, Trump is constantly seeking delays in his trials, hoping that the most important of them will eventually take place after he is elected president – which he is sure – and will be able to handle from power position his cases with the American Justice.
Different in 2024 than 2020
In his speech, Biden showed that he realizes that 2024 is very different from 2020: after a pandemic, with Russia’s war in Ukraine continuing and the Middle East in chaos, the Democratic president was clear in his support for Kiev , while announcing that he had ordered the construction of a floating jetty off Gaza to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.
On the contrary, Trump has stated that he is not so keen on the international role of the US in solving international crises. In this, recent polls (Associated Press 7/3/) favor him, according to which four in ten Americans want America to have a less active role in settling international conflicts. Through the slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), Trump preaches a turn to isolationism, which is also expressed by his obsession with the threat that immigrants pose to the USA. Again the polls are on his side: for the first time since 2019, Immigration is named as the most important issue for Americans at 28% (Gallup 2/27).
A WSJ poll before Biden’s speech had Trump at 47% and Biden at 45%. The lead is within the margin of statistical error and is nevertheless smaller than the four points that preceded Trump in December. Biden’s fiery speech showed that the dynamic can change. The state of the US economy favors Biden, but eight months of campaigning is a long time for two candidates already well known to the American electorate. But because the candidates and their work are known to the world, whose future they will shape to a large extent, the next eight months are predicted to be indulgently anxious.
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