It could be in American politics. Earlier this year, a “republican wave” was expected in the mid-term elections of the House and Senate. In the summer, the Democrats have surprisingly recovered. But maybe they peaked too soon. With just three weeks left – the midterm will take place on November 8 – Republicans seem to have the best papers again.
Data on President Joe Biden’s popularity plummeted last spring. Polls showed that Republicans had a good chance of hiring both the House of Representatives and a majority in the Senate. The summer became more promising for the Democratic Party.
The Supreme Court – dominated by conservative judges – decided in June to wipe out the national right to abortion. The vast majority of Americans disagreed. Democrats hoped that the controversial ruling by the heads of justice would encourage more voters to put their crosses behind the names of Democratic candidates in November. A plan to tighten abortion laws became compelling in early August refused during a referendum in the conservative state of Kansas.
For a while it seemed that abortion would become the most important political issue during the midterm.
From abortion to the economy
At the beginning of the year, the focus was on economic problems affecting much of the world, such as high inflation and rising energy prices. The Biden administration has passed some ambitious bills through Congress, including one strategically chosen as the inflation reduction law. Falling fuel prices meant voter wallets were less affected at the gas pump. Biden’s popularity gradually came out of his pre-summer depression.
With only three weeks to go until the elections, the picture seems to be tilted again. Fuel prices are rising again and inflation remains a persistent problem. At the same time, the hype about the abortion law has largely disappeared from the front pages. Republicans are campaigning mainly around the economy and crime.
Polls show that these two topics are by far the most important election topics for many Americans. Including a group that could be the deciding factor in the races where it counts: independent women voters. Democrats’ hopes of being won over on the abortion issue may be in vain.
The Democrats seem to be losing their homes
There is a persistent belief in American politics that the incumbent president’s party will lose a significant number of seats in Congress in the midterm elections. This is not always the case. For example, it didn’t happen in 2002 and 2014. But when it does, the loss is often so great that it stays well in the memory. Take 2010, when the Democrats had to give up 63 seats in the House of Representatives and then President Barack Obama recognized that voters had given his party a “serious beating”.
If the trends in the polls that began in September translate into the polls, Democrats could say goodbye to their majority in the House of Representatives this year. While this won’t prove to be a huge defeat in 2010, any Republican preponderance could make things difficult enough for the Biden administration during the last two years of its first term.
The Senate race is more exciting
In the Senate, Democrats have a better chance of retaining their narrow majority. This has to do with the fact that only one third of the seats in the Senate are assigned, out of all the seats in the House. Furthermore, the Senate competitions are more about the personalities of the candidates.
Republican candidates like TV celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania) and former soccer star Herschel Walker (Georgia) have the blessing of former President Donald Trump. But they are not seen as the strongest choices in the fight against the Democrats. “The quality of the candidates has a lot of influence on the outcome,” pessimist Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican Senate party, said in mid-August.
It should be noted, however, that Republicans in the Senate only need a net gain of one seat to break the current Democratic majority. And while Oz and Walker are both slightly behind their rivals, those distances aren’t as great as some previously thought. So it will still be exciting on November 8th.
