Ukraine has a problem: it is about to lose all chances of victory. But she finds it hard to admit clearly how badly the war is going for her, she writes CNN in an analytical material presented without editorial intervention by “Focus”.
Giving a frank public assessment of how badly a conflict is going can be unwise as it can lead to a decrease in morale and support. After Obama increased troops in Afghanistan, public support declined over the years, in part due to a lack of realism about how the war was going.
The extremely poor presentation of Ukraine’s problems is largely due to the short-sightedness of its allies.
The lack of understanding in some parts of the US Congress is shocking. A congressman this week suggested that Ukraine should specify an end price and a specific, simple target. It is surprising, after two US wars of choice in two decades, costing trillions of dollars, that Congress’s memories are so short and its understanding so limited.
On the other hand, Kiev constantly points to past successes and future goals. They have retaken about half the territory that Russia seized last year; they harmed her Black Sea presence strategically. They have a plan for 2024, as Zelensky stated, but it is secret.
But really, the most useful headline for Kiev has to be how indescribably bleak the front lines are for them now. The news from almost every direction is grim. Russian forces are carving out parts of the eastern town of Avdeevka, another town that Moscow seems content to throw thousands of lives at despite its minimal importance. On the front line in Zaporozhye, where the counter-offensive was concentrated, ultimately slow and fruitless, Russian units returned with renewed strength and the defense cost Ukraine dearly. Ukraine made a bold (or reckless) push across the Dnieper River, with some small progress toward Russian lines. Casualties are huge, their supply lines problematic, and their prospects unclear.
Kiev now faces almost nightly cruise missile attacks that are mostly stopped by air defenses, Ukrainian officials say. As long as these defenses continue to be effective, Ukraine may have a chance to enter the spring with an intact infrastructure. But air defense could be the first to be affected, according to the Biden administration, when US money runs out.
Zelensky had a really terrible week. His team highlighted the symbolic victory of the EU accession talks and he called it a sign that “history is made by those who never tire of fighting for freedom”. But for real EU membership the war must end and it must end , with Ukraine remaining a viable nation None of these things are currently guaranteed.
Instead, Zelensky must put on a brave face in the face of two pressing financial disasters in four days. Hungary’s decision to veto $55 billion in EU funding for Ukraine’s war effort was met with assurances from EU officials that a unanimous, positive vote was likely in early January. But Viktor Orbán – a right-wing populist with an inexplicable fondness for accused war criminal Vladimir Putin – has opened the door to European disunity. The cohesion of the West up to this point was extraordinary. Elections across Europe and the coming swing likely herald more demands for diplomacy and answers about how the war will end.
Zelensky’s trip to Washington and the earnest pleas he made failed. Even if Washington manages to resume funding early next year, it has already hurt Ukraine. Delays and political theater have played a huge role in making protecting the US’s European NATO allies from being drawn deeper into Europe’s worst land war since the 1940s a partisan bargaining chip.
The debate in Congress was not about military policy in Ukraine, or Kiev’s effectiveness, or why the counteroffensive has failed. It was far shallower: haggling and recriminations about US border policy combined with unreasonable demands that Ukraine predict the future course of the war. This is a stunning failure of American foreign policy, the consequences of which will reverberate for decades to come. Not since Neville Chamberlain held a piece of paper in his hand suggesting that the Nazis could be negotiated with has the stakes been so high.
The bleak military picture for Ukraine was that way even before Congress stopped American aid. Now the looming challenge—the possibility of Ukraine facing Russia without NATO support—weighs on the minds of those who must focus on the winter battles ahead.
“Without help, we’re done,” one somber Ukrainian medic told me on Thursday, after months of rallying troops and the loss of a colleague over the summer. Other troops manage to be more stoic and insist they will fight on, so but make no doubt: the lack of money from the US or the EU – if even one of them fails – very likely means that most of Ukraine will be under Russian occupation within the next two years.
That would put a belligerent, supercharged, revenge-hungry Russian army right on NATO’s borders, something that would immediately become a problem for Washington. Why? Because outside of NATO’s mutual defense treaty, on a purely practical level, Europe’s secure and free democracies are key American trading partners and the bedrock of US global influence.
Yet Zelensky faces an ally in the United States, which is so disjointed and ignorant in part of its political establishment that it has to pretend things aren’t so bad. Admitting that Ukraine is in dire straits supports the argument that there is no point in funding a losing country. If he says Ukraine is winning, then why does it need more help? If it’s a dead end, then surely that’s not too bad after two years?
Some fringe Republicans insist that Russia would have won anyway, so why delay the inevitable by providing aid that only kills Ukrainians? Those who want to say no to Ukraine need no excuse. But it delays the next, darker question, when will you finally say no to Moscow? What part of Ukraine, or perhaps later of its European neighbors, is it acceptable for Putin to subjugate or raze to the ground? Are you familiar with this question?
2023-12-18 10:26:16
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