So the war along the Moei and Salween rivers does not seem to be ending anytime soon. Moving outside Karen State Myanmar’s military governmentbeing opposed andethnic armyMany other groups gathered to tighten the encirclement by attacking from the border area to enter forcefully into the heart of the country withNappyIt is a center of power.
Even though Myanmar’s military is still holding upstrategic cityMany towns were captured (such as Taung U, Pyay, and Mithila), but the Burmese soldiers continued to lose battles. put the situation asideMin Aung Hlaing’s military government He doesn’t seem to fight very well.
inNorthern Myanmar The Kachin Army (KIA) controlled the road from Ba Mo village. (not far from the Chinese border) successfully descended on the city of Mandalay west side The Arakan Army (AA) has been attacking Myanmar’s military bases from the coast up to the mountains on the Indian border.
The east wing Karen Army, KNU, Kayah Army (KNPP) along withThe People’s Army (PDF) He has continuously mobilized his forces to attack Myanmar military bases in towns along the way, such as Myawaddy, Hpa-an, Pha Pun, and Loikaw.
But until now the military government of Myanmar still refuses to raise the white flag of surrender throughout the country. Instead, they announced the conscription of additional troops and used heavy weapons to forcefully attack the opposition in some areas. So the civil war in Myanmar may continue to drag on.
Because the Myanmar army is still fighting. As for the opposition, they are fierce and will not bow to the Myanmar military. Or if you look at it from another perspective the situation could reach a turning point where there will be clear winners and losers soon.
However, regardless of the perspective on the Myanmar war, it is inevitable that the situation of conflict in Myanmar will affect Thailand, which has a land border of about 2,400 kilometers with Myanmar.
To protect Thailand’s interests amid conflict dynamics in Myanmar. The author recommends a combination of so-called preventive and proactive treatment strategies 4-way, 2-axis strategy, mixed with the “MSSC” strategy.
Strategy 4 Tracks 2 Cores or 4 Tracks & 2 Cores It arises from bringing stakeholders in post-coup Myanmar politics together with the structure.geopoliticsThe Thai-Myanmar border area was analyzed and linked together until the main points were obtained as follows.
Track 1 It means making relations with the Myanmar state in the heart of that country. The Thai government should focus its relations with Myanmar’s military government as before.
Because although Naypyidaw and the strategic towns around them are beginning to be surrounded by the opposition, as of today the Myanmar military still holds most of the area.
Track 2 Refers to making relations with the Myanmar state in border areas such as Mae Sot-Myawaddy. By allowing Thailand to increase communication channels and develop greater cooperation with ethnic forces and the democratic government.
Because the opposition group has already won over the Burmese soldiers in this area. However, Thailand must continue to maintain relations with Myanmar troops in the region for some time. Because the state of the battle is still changing and uncertain.
Track 3 It means dialogue and cooperation with powerful states and global organizations such as China, India, the United States and the United Nations, which have a role in Myanmar in many dimensions.
such as economics, border security Geopolitical interests and humanitarian aid Thailand must strike an appropriate balance between these external stakeholders.
The path 4 Refers to dialogue and cooperation in the ASEAN area to solve the problem of the Myanmar civil war. The Thai state should strengthen relations and exchange information closely with the Lao PDR because the Lao PDR holds the ASEAN chair position this year and is a neighboring state with Thailand and Myanmar.
But at the same time Thailand should maintain relations with other ASEAN member states such as Indonesia (chairman of ASEAN last year and a regional state with high power) and Malaysia and the Philippines. (who will chair ASEAN next year in alphabetical order)
Main part 1 or inner core It means defining the area to protect the sovereignty of the state according to the shape of the Golden Ax map of Thailand. This will allow Thailand to place adequate military defenses on the border to prevent violations of jurisdiction and border lines as a result of the fierce fighting in Myanmar.
Core 2 or outer core means allowing Thailand to define a new area that is outside the territory of Thailand. By looking ahead to important areas or routes in Myanmar. So that Thailand has a proactive plan to protect Thailand’s interests in advance or to take a more aggressive role in the field going forward. (Instead of being the only one to accept the problem)
For example, the Golden Triangle region where the influence of the Red Wa and Tao China has increased has caused many effects on Thailand, such as drug problems and border crossings. Therefore, Thailand should think of appropriate ways to enter these areas
In addition, to deal with the migration problem of Myanmar people fleeing the conflict in good time. Including dealing with economic and other impacts. So the author recommendsStrategy “MSSC” whose additional details are as follows:
M. or humanity: Let Thailand announce humanitarian aid to the people of Myanmar without choosing sides. Do not choose favor or hate. Don’t choose which ethnic group you belong to. Let Thailand focus on treating patient injuries according to basic humanitarian principles5 Principles of ASEAN Consensus which clearly states the issue of humanitarian aid in Myanmar
Thailand should not allow persons carrying weapons or members of armed forces in Myanmar to use Thai territory for purposes other than humanitarian issues.
Saturday or Peace/Sustainability: Thailand should participate as a facilitator in mediating talks to reduce conflict between the Myanmar military and the opposition and pave the way for peace and stability along the border.
First, Thailand should remain neutral. Discuss and listen to problems with all conflicting groups that have strongholds along the border and use strategies of short and long proportions, step by step (Piece Approach).
That is, let the conflicting parties come to an agreement on a less serious issue first, such as ending the fighting at some points near Thailand’s economic zone. Then gradually increase to more intense issues at the appropriate time, such as holding political talks between the conflicting parties on the design of the political and administrative system in Myanmar.
or work equipment: The Thai government should create a mechanism to deal specifically with the civil war in Myanmar. For example, Providing the Office of the National Security Council (NSC)
together with the Ministry of Defense, the Royal Thai Army, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the intelligence community It is the main base in preparing strategies and measures to deal with problems in Myanmar.
But at the same time they must have representatives from other sectors Participate in a working group to discuss solutions to solve the problems of Myanmar in a more complete and comprehensive way, such as inviting scholars. Public health group Business and civil society representatives joined the working group.
P. or sustainable development: Thailand should find ways to use resources from Myanmar people with work skills to achieve sustainable development, such as when refugees come to temporary shelter. You should record and keep a systematic record of your educational history and qualifications.
In this regard, people with exceptional work skills in the areas that will benefit the development of the Thai economy and society or the development of border areas? The Thai authorities should also provide adequate job opportunities. For example, facilitating employment as a translator or Burmese language teacher. as well as the language and culture of different ethnic groups, etc.
Even though the fires of the civil war in Myanmar are burning hot and will not be extinguished anytime soon, But the practice 4-way, 2-axis, mixed strategy “MSSC” It should help pave the way for Thailand to deal with the Myanmar problem diplomatically.
2024-04-28 00:40:00
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