[Tomio Sugimura’s short-term market observation]─Rio’s first move! Find out which stocks will perform well in the year-end market!

“Rio’s first move! Find out which stocks will perform well in the year-end market!”

●Nomura Holdings is a notable laggard!

The general market is not in a state of “falling leaves,” but rather a situation of high prices. However, there is no need to worry. The December rally begins. The market will be strong in 2024. After all, it’s called “Tatsumi Ceiling.” There is no way that a ceiling will form in the low price range. The Bank of Japan’s purchases of ETFs (exchange traded funds) are generating large profits, and the GPIF (Governmental Pension Investment Fund) has performed well.

As of the end of June, individual stock assets had ballooned to 268 trillion yen, an increase of 26% from the same period last year. This is when the expanded NISA (Small Investment Tax Exemption System) starts. There is no doubt that cash and deposits (1,000 trillion yen), which account for over 50% of personal financial assets, will start to move.Nomura Holdings, a “male” presence in the securities industry <8604> [東証P]is cheap.Stock prices are from Daiwa Securities Group Headquarters <8601> [東証P]Follow.

Currently, the Nikkei Stock Average’s earnings per share (estimated basis) is 2,261 yen, and the net asset value per share is 25,436 yen. The PER is 14.7x and the PBR is only 1.31x. The world average (MSCI WORLD) is a PER of 16.1 times and a PBR of 2.78 times. If we simply evaluate the PER as the world average, we can set a target value of 36,400 yen for the Nikkei Stock Average, and 70,700 yen for PBR.

Of course, this is a simple calculation. The levels of ROE (return on equity) etc. are different.However, Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> [東証P]It is certain that a major movement has begun, such as the movement to eliminate strategic investments (cross-shareholdings) (a total of 11 trillion yen for the entire group).In fact, Toyota Industries <6201> [東証P]and others like this trend.

This can be said to be the trend of Japan’s revitalization strategy. Furthermore, there is a return of manufacturing to the country and a rush to build new factories. The recovery in inbound tourism and overcoming the coronavirus pandemic is also a big factor. Japan’s economy continues to expand at a rate exceeding its potential growth rate. Under these circumstances, it is impossible for Nomura Holdings’ stock price to be around 600 yen. In the medium term, the company will likely aim to regain its net assets per share (1,092 yen).

●Aim for stocks that will completely change the earnings structure!

In addition, I think that companies that have undergone a complete change in their earnings structure will see a major change in their stock price levels.First, Toyota Tsusho <8015> [東証P]is. According to major securities companies, earnings per share are expected to be 889.6 yen for the fiscal year ending March 2024 (807.6 yen in the previous fiscal year) and 912.3 yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025. We can expect the stock price to aim for five digits (10,000 yen).

LA Holdings <2986> [東証G]conducts a well-balanced real estate new construction, rehabilitation, and rental business. The company expects earnings per share for the fiscal year ending December 2023 to be 544.3 yen (641.4 yen in the previous fiscal year). The dividend will be increased by 10 yen to 210 yen. The dividend yield will be 4.37%.

Hagiwara Electric Holdings <7467> [東証P]is denso <6902> [東証P]is an electronic parts trading company that is our main customer. In addition to the increase in production in the automobile industry, the company’s business performance is excellent due to trends such as EV (electric vehicles) and self-driving cars. Earnings per share for the fiscal year ending March 2024 will be 532 yen (554.7 yen in the previous fiscal year). The dividend will be increased by 30 yen to 185 yen.

In addition, the Optimus Group, which exports used cars to New Zealand, <9268> [東証S]Japan Computer Dynamics, which has surpassed its basic training for several years. <4783> [東証S]Migalo Holdings, which is involved in real estate business and DX (digital transformation) promotion business. <5535> [東証P]You can pay attention to things like.

Univance in price movement (chart interest) <7254> [東証S]Daikoku Electric <6430> [東証P]Baltes Holdings <4442> [東証G]NS United Shipping <9110> [東証P]Aisin <7259> [東証P]Nanhai Chemical <4040> [東証S]would be the aim.

Diary for December 1, 2023

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2023-12-03 00:15:00
#Tomio #Sugimuras #shortterm #market #observationRios #move #Find #stocks #perform #yearend #market

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