The evolution of the number of cases of coronavirus contamination in France follows appreciably that of Italy… with an eight-day lag.
The two neighbors observe each other closely. Number of people infected, number of deaths… Since the start of the coronavirus epidemic in Europe, France and Italy have compared each other. If the first cases of infected people were first detected in France in late January 2020, the explosion of contamination finally took place on the other side of the Alps, in mid-February. But when we look at these figures more closely, we now notice a striking resemblance: the evolution of the number of cases of contamination with coronavirus in France follows that of Italy… with eight days of delay. What to fear an acceleration of the epidemic in a week in France.
So, is France really going to follow Italy? Will the number of cases exceed 15,000 in eight days, as is the case, Friday, March 13, with our transalpine neighbors? Not necessarily, according to Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, specialist in epidemic modeling. According to him, the curve of French cases will increase, but not necessarily follow the evolution of the Italian curve. On one condition: take effective barrier measures such as quarantine.
Thursday March 12, Emmanuel Macron recalled the importance of these preventive measures. New restrictions have been put in place, such as the closure of day nurseries, schools and universities. With all this, “we’re going to save time before having a strong take-off of the curve, estimates the mathematician of the CNRS. And it will go lower. And that is something that is extremely important. Because the maximum height will clog health services or not. “ The braking strategy could therefore bear fruit.
But not all doctors are convinced of this. “I fear an Italian scenario, that the healthcare system is completely overwhelmed by the influx of patients“, alerted Eric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases department of Pitié-Salpêtrière, in Paris. According to him and other health professionals, hospitals and intensive care units will have to deal with an explosion in the number of cases to be treated. A possibility that the government is trying to prevent by postponing all non-emergency operations in hospitals.
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