by Guido Lenzi * –
NATO, a defensive organization limited to the territory of its member states, did not intervene in the Russian aggression against Georgia in 2008, nor in the occupation of the Ukrainian Donbass by troops without insignia, or in the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Moscow therefore believed it could continue undisturbed with the same aim of recovering its own “near abroad”.
On 17 December 2021, Moscow addressed to Washington and NATO (not the EU!) two similar Treaty projects for a “New European Security Architecture”, practically replacing the Helsinki Final Act which, way back in 1975, had established norms of behavior between the states of the continent, giving rise to the OSCE.
Two months later Russia attacked Ukraine with a “special military operation”, with the apparent specific aim of replacing the government with one of its own. Blocked by the Ukrainian resistance, Moscow turned its military operations to the south-eastern provinces of Donbass, then extending them along the Black Sea coast to those of Zaporizhia and Kherson, which it then formally annexed, establishing a territorial connection with Crimea. To this end, the “special military operation” is transformed into an explicit war against the declared aggressive intentions of the Euro-American alignment.
Moscow’s further aim seems to have become that of once again involving the United States in a bipolar management of European issues, resulting in the recovery of its superpower status. Which should instead consist in carrying out its role as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The functionality of which should be restored.
The conclusion ? It is unlikely that Putin will be able to withdraw from the facts accomplished, in particular from the annexation of the provinces of Kherson and Zaporizha as well as Crimea.
The Western strategy therefore seems to be that of politically isolating Russia, calling together the countries, from India to Brazil, South Africa and China, which have so far considered the Ukrainian issue a predominantly European problem. However, it is now clearly a threat to the integrity of the entire international order.
We will, however, ultimately have to work to restore Russia to the community of nations.
* Ambassador. He carried out his diplomatic career from 1964 to 2007 in the offices of Algiers, Lausanne, London, Moscow, UN New York and as Permanent Representative to the OSCE in Vienna. He was director of the European Institute for Security Studies in Paris. He has also served as Deputy Chief of Staff of the Foreign Minister and Diplomatic Advisor to the Ministers of Defense and Interior. He has published articles in various international relations journals and is the author of several books.
Article in mediapartnership with Diplomatic Journal.
