The threat to Latvia and other NATO members from Belarus will continue to grow, SAB concludes

Also, Belarusian military equipment and ammunition are regularly sent for the needs of the Russian army, while Russian air defense and missile systems are increasingly deployed on the territory of Belarus.

However, despite the ever-increasing pressure from Russia, Lukashenko avoided direct involvement of the Belarusian army in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

The main reason for Lukashenko’s actions is the fear of possible public dissatisfaction and destabilization of the political situation, which could lead to the fall of his regime. It is very likely that Russia also wants to avoid this, which does not need another problematic situation on the nearby border, SAB concluded.

However, Lukashenko’s ability to maneuver is limited – if necessary, Russia has all the tools to force the Belarusian armed forces to engage in war, despite possible domestic political consequences for Belarus.

Although anti-regime protests have significantly decreased since 2020, dissatisfaction with the political situation in Belarus remained high in 2022 as well. However, despite public dissatisfaction, Lukashenko has generally managed to regain control over Belarus’ domestic politics.

The probability of new waves of protest is currently low, while the political opposition, whose representatives are imprisoned or have left Belarus, does not threaten the stability of the Lukashenko regime.

Lukashenko has mainly managed to achieve this by means of repression, which continued to increase last year against the opposition, non-governmental organizations and mass media, and against civil society in general.

In 2022, the number of political prisoners in Belarus already exceeded 1447 persons. For example, at the end of October, more than 45 employees of the Academy of Sciences were detained. Most of them were released after interrogation and checking the contents of their mobile phones, some were sentenced to prison, after which the enforcement officers were dismissed. At the end of the year, repressions were also directed against the largest Belarusian companies and organizations.