The 2022 legislative elections mark a profound reorganization of the French political landscape. If 2017 saw the overcoming of the right-left divide, in particular with the election of Emmanuel Macron, followed by the wave of elected deputies of La République en Marche (LRM), 2022 is the year of tripartition. Three poles of equal weight structure the political offer. First, the central pole, that of the outgoing presidential majority, made up of Ensemble!, a coalition of LRM – which will become Renaissance in July –, MoDem and Horizons. The second, the pole of the left, is embodied by the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), which brings together the main formations of the left of government. Finally, the National Rally (RN), which represents the extreme right pole.
Once this observation has been made, it is appropriate to look in more detail at this new political situation. Because each pole is imperfect. At Ensemble!, it is the “walkers” who dominate their allies. At Nupes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and La France insoumise (LFI) exercise an undeniable pre-eminence over their ecologist, socialist and communist partners. These two poles must, moreover, face many dissidences. As for the far right, the predominance of the RN suffers from the emergence of Reconquest!, the movement of Eric Zemmour.
To best analyze this new political reality, The world and a team of researchers from the “LEGIS-2022” project wanted to X-ray the candidacies in the 577 electoral constituencies, in order to draw up a composite portrait of this new political France. Will there be a strong turnover of elected officials? What place for women? What impact will dissenting candidacies have? What is the internal balance of power within the different rallying points?
Lower renewal
The first notable change from the 2022 vintage is the number of applications. In 2017, they were 7,882 to present themselves. Their number has fallen sharply in 2022 – especially after the gathering of left-wing forces in Nupes – since 6,290 candidates (according to the latest figures from the Ministry of the Interior) are in the running for the June 12 ballot, i.e. around eleven per constituency. The record number of candidates (22 in total) is reached in the 9e constituency of French people living abroad (Maghreb and West Africa). Conversely, the constituency of Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon will see four candidates opposing each other.
Another important data concerns the renewal, much less important than it was in 2017. They were then 220 deputies not to represent themselves. They are only 136 in 2022. The majority of incumbents come from the ranks of La République en Marche, with 207 deputies standing for re-election.
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