Jing Yuanzhou, director of the Chinese Communist Party Military Affairs Research Institute at the National Defense University, said that the PLA’s “Order No. 1” has become low-key this year, and the reasons for its consideration are worthy of scrutiny. (AFP file photo)
[Reporter Zhong Lihua/Taipei Report]Jing Yuanzhou, director of the Institute of Military Affairs of the National Defense University, wrote an article in the “Briefing of the Mainland and Cross-Strait Situation” of the MAC, pointing out that in 2023, the CCP did not publicize the No. 1 Instruction as in the past, and judged it as a political propaganda department Considering that the recent Chinese wolf warrior style has caused tension in its foreign relations, it deliberately suppressed the threat atmosphere of a strong army brought about by the command.
Jing Yuanzhou said that according to the usual practice, Xi Jinping, chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, will sign the “Order No. 1” of the Central Military Commission within a few days of the beginning of the new year, and issue a training mobilization order to the entire army. However, in the spring of 2023, although the No. 1 training order has been promulgated to all units, and each unit has started training in accordance with the training outline, it has not been widely disseminated through publicity channels as in the past, and the scale of starting moves has been significantly reduced. “The considerations The reason is worth scrutinizing.”
Jing Yuanzhou said that on Douyin, there are some short videos of individual troops starting training, but most of them are at the group army and brigade level. Among them, the armed police and the army are the most. There are few sea, air, rocket and strategic support troops. Looking back at the news related to the No. 1 Instruction in the past, the words used are quite targeted and provocative, such as “starting training immediately”, “focus on preparing for war”, “keep an eye on powerful enemies”, etc. The actions released in this year’s instruction have become more low-key .
Jing Yuanzhou pointed out that the recent military exercises of the PLA are mainly military exercises against Taiwan and joint military exercises with Russia. While China and Russia continue to conduct joint military exercises, although it does not mean that the two countries have the ability and willingness to actually engage in joint operations at this moment, it has demonstrated the image of the two countries’ consistent strategic positions.
Jing Yuanzhou analyzed that the image of cooperation created by China and Russia will make it impossible for the United States and Japan to take actions against the CCP only when a possible future war in the Taiwan Strait breaks out. That is to say, Russia’s possible actions to contain or take advantage of the opportunity must also be taken into consideration. , This will complicate the combat plan of the US military, and the combat operations will become sluggish.
In addition, the Russia-Uzbekistan war made the CCP understand that if it launches a war in the Taiwan Strait, it will inevitably be subject to international economic sanctions and embargoes. However, at this moment, the most important energy source for combat logistics can directly receive Russian support from land without hindrance, which is of substantial help to maintaining combat power. In short, the CCP adopts a friendly strategy with Russia in order to unite anti-American forces to counteract anti-China forces, and Sino-Russian cooperation will create a favorable situation for the CCP in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, which is also one of its main considerations.
In addition, Jing Yuanzhou pointed out that North Korea said it will also participate in Russian military exercises in the future, and anti-American forces in Northeast Asia have once again strengthened their cooperative relations. Such developments will not be conducive to the US military’s intervention in Taiwan Strait security operations.
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