The military, terrorists and experts predict when the war will end / NV

NV asked participants in the hostilities and territorial defense, as well as military experts, when, in their opinion, the Russian-Ukrainian war would end.

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Elena Belozerskaya, officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

If Russia does not mobilize, everything will end with our victory in May-June. If he does, the war will last at least a year, but we will still win.

The course of the war positively struck even me, a military man. Everything is going as it should, and we, as it turned out, are the best warriors in the world. The main thing now is that there should be no ceasefire agreements, no truces, even short ones, except for humanitarian corridors. Otherwise, during this time the enemy will begin to develop the territory, organize his rear, appoint occupation administrations, and carry out cleansing of the disloyal population. He will set up checkpoints on the highways and arrange his own logistics. As long as the war takes a somewhat chaotic form, we have an advantage, but we risk losing it. De facto, this will lead at least to the loss of control over a significant part of the territories by Ukraine. As in the Donbass. And then, when Russia comes to its senses, to the further Russian offensive.

Heorhiy Tuka, ex-Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons, former Chairman of the Lugansk Regional Civil-Military Administration:

When we destroy this horde, we will liberate every centimeter of our territory, including Donbass and Crimea. I think it could take six months or a year. From my point of view, these are quite realistic terms, if we are not twisted by various agreements, truces, if this war does not turn into a trench war, as happened in the Donbass.

The fact that Russia is resorting to missile and bomb strikes is [для нас] very hard. But do not sprinkle ashes on your head. I am convinced that there is a solution to this problem. Despite the fact that NATO has so far officially refused to participate in securing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, this does not mean that the implementation of this task is impossible. After all, Ukraine has the opportunity to obtain appropriate modern weapons on the basis of bilateral agreements, including between NATO member countries, and possibly also between third countries. As for the personnel who own these weapons, they can come to Ukraine as volunteers of the foreign legion.

If Russia announces mobilization, this will not hurt us much, but will only increase, first of all, the number of Russian prisoners. Which the Armed Forces are not very willing to recruit anyway.

Nikolai Sungurovsky, director of military programs at the Razumkov Center:

Here the question is not so much and not only in assessing the military potentials of Ukraine and Russia. If on resource issues, then in Russia they are already running out. That is, the most capable parts and connections have already been put into action. If now toss [силы ] from other regions means exposing the flanks. Moreover, in order to transfer them, for example, from the Western District, it is necessary, roughly speaking, to download the entire [российскую] railroad. This means stopping the rest of the traffic. And it will be quite hard to feel for Russia. If the transfers go from the Central District, equipment that was in long-term storage is located there, and it remains to be seen whether it will start.

Therefore, it is not worth expecting any significant receipts of ground equipment. The only thing they can significantly increase is missile troops and artillery. The most dangerous for us. How many of them are still there, I can’t say for sure. But, according to Russian experts, this is also a rather limited resource.

Secondly, interesting processes are taking place in the political sphere in the Russian Federation. Putin’s eyes suddenly began to open, that he was being deceived. He has already instructed the prosecutor’s office, the audit department, the investigative committee and intelligence to find out what the money was spent on. [которые выделялись на подрывную деятельность в Украине и формирование «пятой колонны» в 2014—2022 годах] and how [в войска РФ, воюющие против Украины] conscripts got instead of contract soldiers.

And I think, if not heads, then shoulder straps will definitely fly. But if something threatens their heads, then they will face the question: “Maybe it’s better to become a national hero and whitewash your name before the international community than to fall under the guillotine of Putin’s repressive mechanisms?”

And thirdly, what is happening in the international arena. Increasingly, statements began to slip that Ukraine is ready for some kind of compromise or is ready to discuss issues of a neutral status, or territories etc. There is no way to go for this, because it will be a second trap, no better than the Minsk agreements.

These three things – the resource potential, the domestic political and international situation – are superimposed on each other. And given this, I cannot say exactly when the war will end. If the coup happens tomorrow, then tomorrow.

Egor Sobolev, soldier of the 130th battalion of the 112th TRO brigade, Middle Python Developer at Data Ocean data disclosure startup:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine stopped the blitzkrieg planned by Putin. Now the majority of the nation with incredible resilience endures terror with bombs and missiles, with the help of which Russia is trying to morally break Ukraine. It will definitely not work, because more and more Ukrainians and Ukrainians say: “Victory or death.” Such a reaction of free people will ensure the victory of Ukraine. I hope that by the summer we will defeat the occupying armies. But now I am an ordinary soldier, the command may have more ambitious plans.

Leonid Ostaltsev patrol police corporal, owner of VeteranoPizza, founder of VeteranoGroup:

I don’t know when the war will end, but I know that we won it. Because Russia’s plans for Ukraine are not only impossible, these idiots don’t even know what they want. Starting from what they [российские военные] come here to work «liberation”, while in peaceful cities they are quite normally explained that no one needs them here. They thought that the entire Ukrainian army would run away, and there would be no volunteers, but there are a lot of them here. «warmly” met and continue to meet. Today they have huge problems with logistics, communication and everything else. They are still getting in the teeth in all directions. Therefore, now the whole story is completely on our side, plus the world community, economic sanctions etc. That is, Russia kranty. And this is clear.

Now I am still in Kyiv, performing various mainly humanitarian tasks here. At the same time, a huge number of people want to help, want to be involved, want to be useful. This just goes to show that people are motivated to defeat and kill the Russian invaders, or to do their best to help those who do it directly. Therefore, we have already defeated them, we just need to finish them all off, and that’s it.

Akhtem Seitablaev, press officer of the 206th Podolsky battalion of the Kyiv Troops, actor, film director:

Firstly, when this character, the so-called president of the Russian Federation, will be in The Hague. Or not in The Hague. How can this happen? It seems to me that the most likely option is a rebellion among the Russian oligarchs and those who are in no hurry to follow Putin, who for some reason believes that he will die as a martyr. Therefore, I think they will consult among themselves and eventually get rid of this character.

The second component [ускоряющая завершение войны], is the fantastic and unparalleled courage of the Ukrainian people. Everyone is an army now. And those who were forced to leave with their children and parents are helping on their front. May God grant that this unity continues.

But how soon will the war end? I would like it to be tomorrow morning. Yes, even with the liberated Crimea and Donbass, with reparations from the Russian Federation and Putin in the dock in The Hague with the whole camarilla. And yet I think it will happen, unfortunately, not as fast as we want. However, there is strong hope that this will not be delayed.

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