Now, to enter the United Kingdom, the DNI is no longer enough. You need a passport and you have to fill out papers, lots of papers. In part it is because of the pandemic, of course. But don’t we move around the continent with more freedom? The United Kingdom recognizes the covid passport, but this does not prevent people arriving from the rest of Europe from having to fill out forms and queue, despite the fact that there are currently many more infections than on the continent.
For those of us who come from abroad, this is the most visible effect of Brexit, and it is not easy to say to what extent it is the fault of the exit from the European Union or the covid. The same goes for the lack of fuel and empty supermarket shelves in recent weeks. What is the cause? Brexit or the supply difficulties generated by the pandemic?
The distribution and sale of gasoline have already been normalized. The problem was not a lack of fuel, but of carriers. In supermarkets and department stores and shopping centers, everything seems in order, although difficulties persist regarding several products, especially in the face of Christmas: toys with electronic components, affected by the lack of chips and disruption of global transport and distribution chains; meat, particularly turkey, but also pork and veal, due to the lack of personnel specialized in slaughtering animals and cutting the pieces; Christmas trees, affected by transport difficulties (caused by a shortage of truckers).
They are not life or death deficiencies, and it is difficult to know to what extent they are the result of post-Brexit labor regulations, much more restrictive than before with foreign workers, or of the global bottlenecks produced by the pandemic, in particular by the economic slowdown followed by recovery around the world. There are opinions for all tastes, but generally for those in favor of leaving the Union it is about bottlenecks caused by the pandemic, while for those who were against it is the fault of Brexit.
Apart from this, it is known that there will be problems in the national health service, due to a lack of doctors and health personnel, and that there will probably continue to be difficulties with specific products, especially as the Brexit provisions have just come into force, some of which are still in grace period. In addition, the puzzle of Northern Ireland will not be easily solved and the Scottish independence movement will gain support thanks to Brexit. They are not minor issues. However, at the moment the direct impact on citizens is very relative. It had been so insisted that leaving the Union would be a hecatomb that everything that happens is bearable.
Ten days ago, when I arrived in London, the newspapers reported Boris Johnson’s position in the negotiations with the European Union on the Northern Ireland protocol with a forceful headline: “The Prime Minister will not budge on the Court of Justice of the EU”. It was a clear phrase, but read well it could mean two different things. One: that the maintenance of the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the EU over commercial exchanges in Northern Ireland was a red line and that the United Kingdom would not pass there. Two: that the British negotiators were about to give in and were confident that if they denied it loudly, no one would notice, because the agreement would result in a confusing formula. The art of political sleight of hand: a little smoke and a pair of mirrors can work miracles.
Brexit will be bad business for the UK, but Johnson has cushioned the blow for now
In any case, the phrase hid the main fact: it was not about not giving in, but about not complying. Because Boris Johnson accepted the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the EU in Northern Ireland, and now he is not negotiating a new agreement, but renegotiating the one he had accepted and signed. Johnson signed it determined not to comply, as revealed by his then-chief of staff, Dominic Cummings. A negotiation technique that is gaining fame around the world.
At this point there is no doubt that Brexit will be a never-ending story, a process of tug of war without end. Brussels will have to dedicate a good number of officials to permanent negotiations with London. European diplomats will not be short of work. The impact will be gradual.
In view of all this, it is easier to understand politicians who only think in the short term. Why was it necessary for the British Government to worry about the effects of Brexit if, more than likely, something else would happen before they were noticed that would distract public opinion and blur causation?
At this point, there is no doubt that Brexit will be a never-ending story, a process of tug of war without end.
Keynes left a very graphic phrase: “When everyone thinks that the inevitable will happen, the unexpected arises.” For politicians, the incentives to think long-term are limited. People’s memory is short and the information cycle inexorable: before, the first page of the newspaper served after a few hours to wrap the sandwich, but now it is nothing more than a forgotten screen.
I have no doubt that, in the medium and long term, the Brexit balance will be negative. For the United Kingdom it will be very bad business (and, to a lesser extent, also for the European Union). But in the long run, as Keynes also said, all dead. For now Boris Johnson has managed to cushion the blow, which is what it was about. He has taken the country out of the Union and there has been no cataclysm, and he can blame the problems that have arisen on the pandemic and – naturally – on Brussels, the eternal scapegoat. And whoever comes after, let him drive.
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