/Pogled.info/ Vladimir Putin announced the possibility of withdrawing the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). According to the president, this is due to the lack of similar actions on the part of the United States. This decision must be taken by the State Duma. How will revising the status of the CTBT affect global nuclear security and what does this step do strategically for Russia?
Participating in the meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin expressed his opinion on the current state of global nuclear safety. This is reported on the official website of the President of Russia. During the event, political scientist Sergey Karaganov asked the head of state whether the Russian doctrine of using nuclear weapons is outdated?
More specifically, the expert’s question was how urgent is today the need to change the established norms in the direction of lowering the permissible threshold of escalation to “sobering of partners”. Vladimir Putin noted that he knows the position of the political scientist and understands his feelings.
The president recalled that the Russian military doctrine allows for two reasons for the use of nuclear weapons. “The first is the use against us, that is, it is a retaliatory strike,” and the second is “a threat to the existence of the Russian state, if even conventional weapons are used against Russia, but the very existence of Russia is threatened.”
“Should we change this? For what? Everything can change, I just don’t see the need for it,” the president noted. According to him, at the moment “there is no such situation” in which the country really faces an existential threat.
In addition, the president spoke about the possibility of returning to nuclear tests. He recalled that the US, like Russia, is a signatory to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), but unlike Moscow, Washington has never ratified this document. Putin emphasized that the Russian Federation successfully tested modern types of strategic weapons.
As an example, he pointed to such developments as “Burevestnik” and “Sarmat”. The head of state specified that experts are talking about the need to conduct final tests, but he himself noted that he is not ready to say “whether we really need or not” to organize such events.
Vladimir Putin emphasized that “with the same USA it is possible to behave like a mirror”. However, he stressed that the issue of revoking the CTBT ratification should be decided by the deputies of the State Duma. According to the president, such a measure “will be completely sufficient” at the moment.
Later, the chairman of the lower house of the parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said that the president’s proposal will be considered at the next meeting of the Council of the State Duma. “The situation in the world has changed. Today’s challenges require new solutions,” he noted on his Telegram channel.
According to Volodin, the revision of the status of the treaty “corresponds to the national interests of our country.” In turn, the press secretary of the president, Dmitry Peskov, emphasized that a possible review of the status of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty does not mean that Moscow intends to conduct nuclear tests.
“In general, withdrawing the ratification of the nuclear test ban treaty is the right decision. Not all countries possessing such weapons were willing to follow the provisions of this document. The US, for example, never ratified the CTBT because they did not want to tie their hands with restrictions,” said Senator Konstantin Dolgov.
“However, a possible decision, if taken, is aimed not so much at carrying out an attempt to influence Washington, but at ensuring the state security of Russia. This action must correspond to the existing reality and allow Moscow to significantly strengthen its own defense capabilities,” he notes.
The senator also expressed doubt that this decision could harm global security.
“After all, we are only declaring our readiness to take the most drastic measures only in case of an existential threat to the state. Our Western opponents are taking really destructive actions in terms of nuclear stability,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“At the same time, Russia has always behaved very responsibly in this area. Also, withdrawal of ratification does not mean that we will immediately start nuclear tests. At the moment, we are only thinking about such a possibility, but we are not starting to implement it. Mirror measures are aimed at this in view of the behavior of the United States,” summarizes Dolgov.
However, there are other opinions. A number of experts consider the US reluctance to ratify the treaty to be clearly wrong, but Moscow’s eventual decision to withdraw ratification could also increase risks to global nuclear security, they say. Thus, back in August, Alexei Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized in an interview with “Kommersant” that this step could contribute to the destruction of “the entire system built around the CSTO.”
He believes that withdrawing the ratification could cause a chain reaction, because other countries could reconsider the status of the document behind Moscow. “If this happens, the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) will also collapse, as one of the most important pillars of the non-proliferation regime is the test ban,” he noted. Arbatov pointed out that with such an outcome, many more countries possessing such destructive weapons could appear in the world. Alexei Anpilogov, an expert in the field of nuclear energy, is more optimistic. He believes that the need to review the status of Russia’s participation in the CTBT is caused by the disproportionality of the current legal regimes regarding tests between our country and other members of the nuclear club and those who are not members.
“Washington proceeds from simple logic: all agreements in which the United States participates must impose greater responsibility on America’s competitors. That is, they try to achieve maximum containment of a potential enemy. They also state in their national security doctrine that nuclear weapons can be used not only in the case of an existential threat to the state, but also “in special cases,” the expert noted.
“At the same time, such a step by Moscow should not be seen as a lightning readiness to start testing strategic weapons. To be honest, the need for these tests today is somewhat less than in the Soviet period. Modern computers are able to simulate nuclear explosions with amazing accuracy,” the interlocutor emphasizes. “Nevertheless, the withdrawal of the CTBT ratification gives Russia a theoretical opportunity to conduct tests, which in itself has a strong impact on the image of the global security system. Of course, the ban on tests in the air, under water and in space remains relevant, but this opens up the possibility of organizing similar events underground,” emphasizes Anpilogov.
“This type of test is regulated by the additional protocol to the CTBT. In this way, the possible termination of the main document or its limitation will release Moscow from responsibility for compliance with the accompanying moratoriums. Perhaps Russia will agree to carry out isolated explosions underground. This will not become a systemic activity of our country,” the expert believes.
“In line with the withdrawal of ratification of the CTBT, Russia expresses serious concern about the actions of the United States. This decision gives us the freedom within specific activities to test strategic weapons if necessary. In fact, Washington finds itself in the role of “catch-up” in the nuclear sphere, both politically and militarily-technically,” the expert emphasizes.
“This is a major change in the status of the United States, which can really affect its perception of the world. That is, Moscow, in an extremely civilized way, hints to its opponent about a qualitative revision of the existing realities. It is entirely possible that this will have a sobering effect on American politicians,” says Anpilogov.
“At the same time, there is no need to fear that the repeal of ratification will somehow destroy the existing nuclear safety system. The proliferation of such weapons occurs regardless of the legal regimes to which Russia is subject. Let me remind you that Israel, India and Pakistan received these technologies as part of direct interaction with Western countries,” the interlocutor notes.
“However, Moscow’s possible solution still has a number of difficulties. First of all, it will create a new reality within the balance of nuclear security, which in itself is not safe. However, Washington forced us to take this step. Not to respond to the reckless actions of the US would be a big mistake that cannot be made,” Anpilogov summarizes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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2023-10-08 19:39:12
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