The governor’s annual speech, new housing figures, a report from the technical calculation committee and GDP figures are some of what awaits this week.
Kari Due-Andresen, chief economist at Akershus Eiendom, is anxious to see whether the figures coming this week will show signs of optimism in the population now that the interest rate peak has probably been reached. Photo: E24Published: Published:
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We are entering a week full of events. During the week, several large companies will present their results for the third quarter of 2023, including Salmar, Norwegian, Vår Energi and Hydro.
In addition, during the week you will find out more about the basis for the upcoming salary settlement through the technical calculation committee’s (TBU) preliminary report on the Norwegian economy and salary development.
Central bank governor Ida Wolden Bache will give her annual speech, Statistics Norway will present GDP and inflation figures will be received from the United States.
Does the crisis for new home sales continue?
On Thursday, the Boligproduktorenes Association presents figures for sales and starts of new homes in January 2024.
– It is interesting to see if there can be any signs of improvement here, or if it is as gloomy as it has been in recent months. Sales of new homes have been incredibly weak, says Kari Due-Andresen, chief economist at Akershus Eiendom.
New home sales have been in free fall for the past two years. The industry has long sounded the alarm. Managing director Lars Jacob Hiim of Boligprodukterene says 2023 was a crisis year for housing construction and the industry.
– Such weak new home sales and the new home market will potentially contribute to even stronger house price growth when demand gets going properly again, says Due-Andresen.
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The spending shock
Excited about cabin interest
The week before the winter holidays in the eastern region, we also get answers from Eiendom Norge about how the cabin prices are.
Due-Andresen believes that it can be interesting to follow:
– The cottage market often takes the brunt before there are very large effects in the housing market. The market for cabins has been weak and it has been difficult to sell cabins on the mountain for a while.
The chief economist says it will be interesting to see if there are trends towards more interest in cabins, and points out that the second-hand housing market surprised solidly on the upside.
– It is conceivable that when the interest rate peak has now been reached, people will be able to calculate to a greater extent what they can afford, because now it will probably not get worse.
House prices rose by 3.4 per cent from December to January, while growth was 0.7 per cent adjusted for seasonal variations.
This happens in week 7
Monday 12 February
- Crisis-stricken Avinor presents its results for the fourth quarter of 2023
Tuesday 13 February
- Statistics Norway: The development in household wealth 2022
- Inflation figures from the USA
- OPEC’s monthly report
- These companies present results for the fourth quarter: Vår Energi, Sats, Selvaag Bolig and Salmon Evolution
- Coca-Cola presents results for the fourth quarter.
Wednesday 14 February
- NHO’s competence barometer
- Tine with annual report for 2023
- SSB: BNP-tall
- Statistics Norway: Figures for salmon exports
- Nortura with annual report
- Oslo Energy Forum 2024
- A number of companies present results: Autostore, Hydro, Mowi, Wallenius Wilhelmsen, Avance Gas, Viaplay, Pexip, Akastor, Ultimovacs and Morrow Bank
- CPI figures from Great Britain
Thursday 15 February
- The central bank’s annual speech
- The cabin prices from Eiendom Norge
- The new home statistics for January are presented
- EU economic winter forecast
- Statistics Norway: Trade balance
- SSB: Oil investments
- Sjømat Norge organizes a meeting about the salmon tax one year after its introduction
- Salmar, Aker Horizons and TGS present results. Saga Pure, PGS, Tomra Systems and Hexagon Composites do the same
- Airbus presents its results after closing time
Friday 16 February
- Technical calculation committee (TBU) with its preliminary report on the Norwegian economy and wage development
- LO with a press conference about the salary settlement
- Norwegian presents results. So do Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap, Philly Shipyard and Aurora Eiendom
- Folketrygdfondet’s annual report
- Swedish unemployment
Sea view
The development in the Norwegian economy
On Wednesday, we will find out how the Norwegian economy developed in December, when Statistics Norway publishes GDP figures. GDP figures. Gross domestic product for Mainland Norway measures growth in the Norwegian economy excluding income from oil operations and foreign shipping. It is the most common number to look at when measuring economic growth in this country.
Gross national product (GDP) for mainland Norway fell by 0.2 per cent in November.
– Relatively small changes are expected. Activity in the Norwegian economy has slowed down considerably, but people have not started to lose their jobs on a large scale and unemployment is low, says Kari Due-Andresen.
– It will be interesting to see if there are any signs of a more extensive weakening in this GDP report. In that case, it will be interesting in terms of the prospects, she continues.
According to estimates obtained by Bloomberg, a fall of 0.1 percent is expected.
Chief economist Kyrre M. Knudsen at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank Photo: Odd Mehus
Chief economist Kyrre M. Knudsen at SpareBank 1 SR-Bank says the big question is whether we will see a further decline and a mild recession in Norway.
– That is the most likely, but we see from the US that consumer sentiment is turning quickly and that people breathe easier when wage growth is higher than inflation and interest rate cuts are close, he says.
– Interest rate cuts may take some time
On Tuesday, the inflation figures from the United States for January will be released. In advance, a price increase of 2.9 per cent is expected, according to estimates from Bloomberg.
The US inflation figures affect the setting of interest rates in the US, which in turn is important for interest rates in the rest of the world.
– Norwegian interest rates are affected by the American market, and we see that long-term interest rates in Norway move in step with the American ones. So any good news from American inflation figures, which causes the market to lower its shoulders a little, will be able to affect the Norwegian market, says Kari Due-Andresen.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)(CPI)CPI inflation and PCE inflation both measure price changes for consumers. However, PCE inflation is broader in scope and takes into account price changes throughout the output of the economy, as well as changes in costs to consumers. in the USA came in at 3.4 per cent in December, compared to the same month the previous year.
– The Americans no longer have critically high inflation, but it has now been in the triple digits since June last year. It is a reminder that it is not so easy to reduce the last percentage and that interest rate cuts may take some time, says Knudsen in SR-Bank.
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Wolden Bache’s annual speech
On Thursday, the stage is set for Central Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache’s annual speech at 6 p.m. After the speech, Norwegian society leaders gather for Norges Bank’s annual dinner.
After a long series of interest rate hikes, 14 to be exact, Norwegians are anxiously waiting for when the first interest rate cut will come. But you probably won’t get any answers to that in the speech. Due-Andresen says that would make her very surprised.
– The central bank governor’s annual speech is not very exciting in terms of the interest rate outlook. The speech is often used to talk about some topic that is important to the Norwegian economy – but not monetary policy in the short term.
This week, Ida Wolden Bache takes the podium. Here from the previous interest rate decision in January. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
Price growth in January ended at 4.7 per cent, measured against the same month last year.
Chief economist Kjersti Haugland at DNB Markets said in connection with the new inflation figures that the price trend favors Norges Bank cutting interest rates in September. At the same time, she emphasizes that there is still a lot of uncertainty around interest rate cuts.
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The salary settlement
A preliminary report from the Technical Calculation Committee (TBU) on the Norwegian economy and wage development is due on Friday.
TBU calculates what wage growth was in the previous year, provides an analysis of the current status and also estimates what price growth will be for the rest of the year.
In this way, the parties can refer to the same numerical basis when negotiating this year’s settlement. If TBU misses, then the frame from the front subject will also quickly miss.
Due-Andresen says it is likely to be a year of high wage growth, which in turn will help to dampen the decline in Norwegian inflation.
– It is likely that TBU will be close to the estimate from Statistics Norway of 4.5 per cent and Norges Bank of 4.4 per cent. Statistics Norway expects wage growth in 2024 of 5.4 per cent and Norges Bank expects 5.0 per cent. Both environments therefore expect real wage growth this year, says Kyrre M. Knudsen.
2024-02-11 20:02:55
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