According to Bloomberg’s monitoring, the common denominator of almost two dozen opinions on the koruna is extreme uncertainty. The differences in the forecasts of the euro price at the one-year horizon in the scenarios of banks attack almost three crowns.
“Estimates lack a clear trend as their variance is large and growing. For example, for the second quarter of next year, the expected average exchange rate is about 26 crowns per euro, but the range of the estimate is from 25.40 to 27.50 crowns per euro, “says Petr Sklenář, an economist at J&T Banka.
A similar situation exists for the average exchange rate expected next year. While Swedbank, for example, is betting on the price of 27.50, ie a further weakening of the koruna, Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, sees the euro at 24.80 for the whole year, which would mean a strengthening of the Czech currency by almost nine percent.
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Financial houses are betting on a renewed strengthening of the koruna in a situation where the Czech currency has weakened by almost five percent since the beginning of September. “It’s a market reaction to the covert situation in our country. It doesn’t have to bother us, it will help the industry a bit, “says Miroslav Singer, chief economist at Generali CEE Holding and ex-governor of the Czech National Bank.
According to Bloomberg’s estimates, the koruna should calm down by the end of the year. On average, bank analysts expect the exchange rate of 26.40 crowns per euro at the turn of this autumn and winter, so the Czech currency should strengthen by about 2.5 percent.
“The current weakening of the koruna is considered to be a short-term fluctuation rather than a change in the equilibrium value,” confirms Pavel Sobíšek, an economist at UniCredit banka. According to analysts, the impulses for the course will come from outside. “Any significant changes in the koruna’s exchange rate against the euro will be due more to external influences, such as the decline in capital markets and the related decline in emerging market currencies,” says EY consulting firm Jan Fanta. In addition to the development of the pandemic, the US presidential election is to be important factors.
According to the agency’s statistics, long-term forecasts for 2024, for example, are more in agreement that the euro exchange rate should be just over 24 crowns per unit of the EU currency, so in the medium term the koruna should strengthen by about ten percent.
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