LIVE the speech of St. Kasselakis on the Economist convention
#LIVE #speech #Kasselakis #Economist #convention
The assembly between the president of PASOK, Nikos Androulakis, and the previous President of France, François Hollande, happened in a pleasant environment.
The 2 politicians mentioned worldwide developments and exchanged views on ongoing European points.
As well as, additionally they mentioned the upcoming European elections on June 9 and the brand new relationships that may come up after the polls within the our bodies of the European establishments.
The assembly of Nikos Androulakis and François Hollande happened within the context of the Economist’s convention on small and medium enterprises.
#Androulakis #Wednesday #Hollande #focus on
On this day in 2016, István Tarlós called Dávid Vitézy an economist who was beaten and insulted everywhere. The former mayor reacted to Vitézy’s criticism of the capital’s plans to limit bicycle traffic. According to Tarlós, the leaked document – which stated, among other things, that cyclists should be restricted from entering one-way streets – was stolen from the town hall. By the way, Fidesz mayors also stood up for the cyclists.
#Video#on this day#istván tarlós#vitézy dávid#sértett#bkk#közgázdász#bicikli#biciklisek#kerekpár
The Confindustria study center sees “Italy’s growth slowed at the beginning of 2024”. In the monthly ‘flash’ economic analysis of the via dell’Astronomia economists “the Italian economy is supported by low inflation, increasing family confidence and growing services, while industry seems to be stabilising. However, there are various negative factors : the brake on trade flows in the Suez Canal continues, oil continues to rise in price, the rate cut is postponed again, credit to businesses remains in decline”. In this scenario “a weak GDP is expected in the first quarter of 2024”. The industry is “convalescent”.
For further information Agenzia ANSA Giorgetti: ‘There is a fair amount of vitality, strengthening growth’ – News – Ansa.it “Our economy also grew in 2023, although at a slower pace and shows a fair amount of vitality”. (HANDLE)
Domestic demand – explains Confindustria – is expected to be weak, with “more light” for consumption. There is “a marginal decline in employment, but “the medium-term trend in employment remains very positive and supports incomes”. With family confidence “rising again” in February”. “Rates and loans don’t help.” The study center directed by Alessandro Fontana detects “more shadows” on the investment front: “Credit is declining”, in February “orders from capital goods companies are decreasing”, “company sentiment has dropped”. The services sector is “in moderate expansion”, “business confidence, however, has suffered a setback, after a few months of recovery”. The industry is “convalescent”.
The new ‘real time’ index of the Confindustria research centre, Rtt, “signals an increase in turnover in industry in January (+3.2%), which suggests a recovery in production at the beginning of the year (-0.5% in fourth quarter). waiting for a stabilization of production; However, the destocking of inventories continues and the confidence of manufacturing companies falls again to low levels.”
For further information Agenzia ANSA Abi, the signs of a drop in rates are strengthening – News – Ansa.it The rate on mortgages for the purchase of a house in February fell to 3.90% (ANSA)
Reproduction reserved © Copyright ANSA
2024-03-16 13:01:00
#Confindustria #Weak #GDP #expected #quarter #News #Ansa.it
Is U.S. stock speculation over interest rate cuts too much? Economists do not believe the market’s interest rate expectations (Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images)
The Fed’s turn has made the market more confident that interest rate cuts will begin in early 2024, and the expected rate cuts are much deeper than the Fed’s outlook.
Real-time quotations of U.S. stocks and foreign currencies, multi-country news
The interest rate futures market showed that as of Thursday, the market expected an 80% chance of a first interest rate cut in March. This is in line with the latest forecast from Goldman Sachs, which within a week revised its rate cut expectations to March from the fourth quarter of 2024.
Goldman cited comments from the Federal Reserve that inflation would fall faster than originally expected and that recent inflation data were weaker than expected.
“Inflation is returning to target faster and we now expect the authorities to cut interest rates earlier and faster. We now forecast three consecutive 0.25% rate cuts in March, May and June to prevent the policy rate from becoming too high.” David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a report on Thursday. “
The Federal Reserve released its latest “dot plot,” which is where officials expect interest rates to go. The dots show that Fed officials expect to cut interest rates by 0.75% next year, which is 0.25% more than previously forecast.
The central bank expects core inflation to top out at 2.4% next year, down from the 2.6% forecast in September.
However, investors took the news further. According to Bloomberg data, before the Reserve Board’s interest rate meeting in November, the market has already digested expectations of three interest rate cuts next year. Now, investors are expecting seven rate cuts by January 2025, after the Fed kept rates on hold at two meetings and the outlook for inflation is more optimistic.
Still, economists don’t all agree with the market’s aggressive pricing.
Ernst & Young chief economist Greg Daco has been warning that just because a soft landing is in sight does not mean that everything will be smooth sailing for the U.S. economy.
He explained that because consumers are still paying more for everything than before the epidemic, the resulting cost fatigue may still affect the way Americans consume in the future.
“They have become more cautious about spending money, whether it is goods or services.” Daco said on Yahoo Finance Live: “As we enter 2024, this will be a key change. The key background and the pillar of a soft landing is the labor market It’s not going to tighten. So far, we haven’t seen the pattern of tightening that preceded the recession… Will this continue?”
Daco pointed out that the Fed’s acknowledgment that it is closer to a rate cut than a rate hike is very important, but this does not fully support the change in market expectations.
“We have to be cautious about how the market is pricing in rate cuts,” Daco said. “Unless there is a recession, the Fed is not going to be in a hurry to cut rates quickly…so the euphoria about a soft landing and an environment where we’re not going to see any slowdown, Maybe a little too much.
“The Fed won’t be cutting interest rates anytime soon.”
Other economists agree with Daco. Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank still expect rate cuts to begin in June.
Rich countries see June as the starting point for rate cuts because they believe central banks will need to keep interest rates high while “employment growth remains strong and inflation rises.” But in the end, interest rates constrain economic progress, and interest rate cuts will pave the way sooner or later.
“We expect that sluggish economic growth, a weak job market, and continued slowing inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.” Wells Fargo’s research report wrote.
Key to the rich countries’ argument is the extent of the economic slowdown. If the economy falls into recession, interest rates are expected to be cut by 2.25% in the first quarter of 2025, about half a percentage point more than current market expectations. If such a full-blown recession does not occur, rich countries say the pace of interest rate cuts “will be much slower.”
2023-12-18 06:03:21
#U.S #stock #speculation #interest #rate #cuts #muchEconomists #dont #market #expectations
Economist Radu Nechita explains, in an interview for “Adevărul”, why the European Commission is in the position of asking Romania for a series of measures, some harsh, but also where Brussels is exaggerating. In his opinion, the blame for the current economic situation of the country belongs exclusively to the last governments that led Romania.
The Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance do not find solutions for the deficit PHOTO: Inquam Photos/ George Călin
Romania’s huge deficit and the country’s financing and debt problems are causing debate, especially after the negotiations with Brussels have not led, at least for now, to a consensus on the necessary reforms.
Furthermore, the Minister of Finance, Marcel Boloș, complained that the European Commission officials are demanding some measures that would lead to Romania entering insolvency. And Boloș listed here the reform of the single salary, the pension law and the reduction of the budget deficit, which, if done at the same time, would endanger the country’s economy. At the same time, the introduction of progressive taxation and the reduction of VAT rates from three to one would lead to price increases in the chain, and food prices would immediately increase by at least 10%, the same minister claimed.
“Budget crunch” brought us here
“Adevărul” spoke with the economist Radu Nechita, associate professor at the Babeș-Bolyai University in Cluj, about the risks that these measures would entail for Romania’s economy.
The professor from Cluj believes that Romania ended up with this deficit because of the bad decisions made by the last governments.
“We have reached this situation, with the deficits we have, after a succession of economic policy errors. During periods of economic growth, you do not run a budget deficit, but reduce the public debt. During periods of economic growth, you run a budget surplus rather than a budget deficit. What did the Romanian governments do? All of them, regardless of political color, ran deficit after deficit. What this means? It means that all governments spent more money than they collected in the budget”, points out Nechita.
Why are we being asked for harsh measures?
The European Commission seems to have lost its patience and is firmly demanding tough measures, which will affect the population, says the professor, who emphasizes that Brussels is not to blame for the delicate situation in which Romania’s economy finds itself.
Radu Nechita
“They come and set us certain conditions, they tell us like this: “We don’t want to give money for nothing, to throw some money into a bottomless bag. We want these resources that we make available to you to have an impact, to allow you to rise from the mire in which you have been complacent for so long, to generate economic growth», he adds.
An exaggerated requirement
However, there is also an exaggerated measure that would be required from Brussels, says Radu Nechita.
“On this existing logic of Brussels, certain problems can be grafted that have nothing to do with our interest, but with their interest. Namely, the fact that we have a tax system that, at least on paper, looks very competitive. We have single rate, we have a tax system with taxes at least at the percentage level and the way they are calculated, at a reduced level. And this thing drives them out of their minds. Because they have progressive taxation, they have a much more complicated tax system than ours, and instead of changing it and making it reasonable, they want us to change ours, even though it’s better than theirs. All for political reasons”, claims Nechita.
There is also a paradox here, explained by the professor from Cluj. On the one hand, these tax measures and discipline would help us, but changing the tax system would cause a lot of dissatisfaction among investors. Moreover, raising taxes would be a toxic measure.
“This package, the conditions they put on me, part of it is common sense, part of it is really solvable. But the idea of increasing taxes, tax rates, is toxic. We must reduce public expenditures, especially those that are not necessary, those that are useless. Some of them are downright harmful,” adds Nechita.
The European Commission also strongly requested a salary law and a pension law updated according to Romania’s needs. Here, the Romanian authorities have no excuse, says Radu Nechita.
“So, the Romanian state is a monster, a parasite of the economy that absorbs all resources to feed itself. We have far more public sector employees than other Central and Eastern European countries. Of course, you cannot apply the single wage law when you have about 500,000 more employees in the state than would be normal. But that’s not the EU’s fault for demanding the Single Pay Act. And look into the pension system. There is a small percentage of very, very large pensions that belong to this aristocracy, to this budget snitch, which manages to extract some absolutely colossal resources from the state budget and ultimately suffocates the private sector that generates the country’s wealth. We get everything from this hood”, says the teacher.
All economic imbalances were caused by politicians, by those who governed Romania, regardless of political color, by all those who tolerated a harmful system, is Nechita’s conclusion.
“We can reproach the European Commission for perhaps asking us for a progressive system that would turn us upside down, but not for the slander and mockery of public money that this scumbag, this junta that claims to be a state. If they had done their job, stolen less and taken the appropriate economic measures, we wouldn’t be in a position to go to Brussels again with our hats,” concludes Radu Nechita.
2023-09-11 18:31:50
#European #Union #mummy #plague #Romania #Economist #Budgetary #sloppiness #blame
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