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The Czech koruna strengthened sharply. This can moderate the rise in interest rates

The koruna broke the psychological limit of 24.30 koruna per euro on Wednesday afternoon in Central European Time. It strengthened below it for the first time since September 2012. According to Bloomberg, the koruna reached a rate of 24,292 crowns per euro.

It thus slightly lagged behind its absolute maximum for the entire period of the last ten years, which is the value of 24,278 crowns per euro, achieved during trading on 11 September 2012. The strengthening of the koruna to a weaker level over the last ten years, even for the whole period since September 2011, thus seems only a matter of time.

On Wednesday, the koruna strengthened hand in hand with other currencies in the Central European region, the zloty and the forint. This year, it strengthens against the euro and the dollar most significantly of all the currencies of the countries that the International Monetary Fund ranks among the advanced economies. In Europe, only the aforementioned Hungarian forint strengthens against the dollar and the euro this year.

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On Wednesday, Central European currencies strengthened immediately in response to yesterday’s hearing of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before a Senate committee of the US Congress.

Powell’s speech weakened the dollar

The market evaluates Powell’s statements as relatively fewer hawks, which puts pressure on the dollar to weaken and strengthen assets perceived as less secure than the US currency, such as the Czech koruna, the zloty and the forint.

For a long time now, the Czech koruna has been benefiting from a rapid increase in the key interest rate submitted by the Czech National Bank. The market thinks that the CNB will raise this rate to 4.5 percent by the end of March. Under the influence of a sharp strengthening of the koruna, the market is easing its expectations regarding the raising of CNB rates. Last week, he assumed that the CNB’s key interest rate would climb to 4.75 percent in the first quarter this year. However, the strengthening of the koruna tightens monetary conditions so much that If January inflation does not exceed the level of ten percent too much, the CNB could really only be satisfied with an increase in the key interest rate to 4.5 percent. At present, the basic interest rate is 3.75 percent.

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The strengthening koruna may be a problem for some exporters. According to the president of the Confederation of Industry and Transport Jaroslav Hanák, however, such a problem will only be more widespread if it breaks the level of 24 crowns per euro. Hanák said this last week in an interview with TV Nova.

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