The Complex Economic Scenario and Its Impact on Savings: Insight from the Bank of Spain’s Indicators

The data is the result of a situation in which what financial institutions grant es less than what the private sector is amortizing -the rise in rates has also encouraged those who can to reduce or liquidate what they owe to banks and savings banks-. He rising price of money has completely changed the landscape. Families and companies are tempted more clothes before going into debt. And the financial entities have hardened also the concession of credits.

This 2023 does not seem like an exercise in which the context invites you to borrow. Suffice it to remember that the Unicaja study service, in its latest report in June, estimates that this year the economy of our province will only grow by 0.3%, when it came from a rise of 3.1%. Only Jaén will have a more modest result (+0.1%). This research service expects GDP in Andalusia to rise by 1.3%.

He decline in credit experienced in cordoba fits in the line of the trend registered throughout the country, albeit in a much more pronounced way. As of the third month of this year, in the nation as a whole, the amount that households and businesses had pending payment in loans experienced a decrease of one percent.

This is also the third consecutive quarter that balances with a decline of the outstanding loans that the private sector had outstanding. In addition, the last one for which there is data is the one that shows the greatest setback.

This series of descents started with the September indicator. On that date, families and companies in Cordoba accumulated 12,496 million that they still had to pay. They were 45 less than a year earlier (-0.4%).

He indicator for December was also negative, but milder. The aforementioned amount stood at 12,530 million. They were 15 less, which meant a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%.

If you skip to another analysis, the one of the still photo at the end of the first quarter of each exercise in the province, it is seen that the 2023 decline broke a bullish line in the volume of loans that families and companies had to settle. The previous decrease occurred in March 2019. The amount owed by the private sector then stood at 11,936 million. That figure implied a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. It was one more of the series of falls that preceded this one.

Companies and families, after the financial crisis of 2008 what surprised you heavily loaded with credits with the bank, they bet on reduce debtIn fact, from March 2013 to the same period in 2019, said debt decreased by 33.6%.

But that downward trend did not continue. At the end of the third month of 2020, the analyzed figure amounted to 12,011 million, which represented a slight increase of 0.6%, which broke the aforementioned decreasing line. In March 2021, that amount was raised more vigorously: +3.5%. That 365-day period is completely marked by the brutal Covid crisis. There were businesses that had to resort to raising funds in the bank to get ahead.

He triennium of increases closed it 2022 (includes a period of economic recovery after the punishment of the pandemic), when the 12,658 million pending payment in loans for households and companies were reached. That amount left a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.

Raise the fixed term

And in the indicators of the deposits There is a figure to which you must pay attention. TO March datethe amount that he private sector kept in financial entities in the province was 15,187 million. There are 381 more than a year before (+2,6%) and keep adding increases. But there is a striking aspect on which it will be necessary to put the magnifying glass to see if it is something isolated or marks the beginning of a pattern.

And it is that what companies and families have saved in sight banking -that is, available immediately- broke its upward trend and at the close of the first quarter a 0.6 drop%. From 13,879 million it fell to 13,793. They were 86 less. As indicated, it is still a specific piece of information, but there may be different factors that influence it. One is that, faced with an inflationary scenario, households and businesses are having to resort to their ‘piggy bank’.

Also there will be a part of that money on sightthat given the low profitability offered by banks for this deposit formula, have appealedseeking to get more out of their money with the rise in rates, to the term mechanisms or to other formulas, such as Treasure letters.

In fact, the fixed-term savings interrupted his downline and they passed from treasuring 927 million to 1,076. There are 149 more (+16%). Lastly, other bank deposit formulas experienced strong growth. From zero euros registered by the Bank of Spain in March 2022, it jumped to 317 million.