The Banque de France asks the State to do more

After “The time of the emergency”, “Time to restart” of the economy has now come. It will require “Patient, selective action”, to help companies’ own funds, explained the Governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, while presenting, on Tuesday May 12, on France Inter, the latest indicators of the French economy.

Containment resulted, according to Banque de France calculations, in a loss of 6 points of gross domestic product (GDP): there was therefore no worsening of the trend in April. But, warns Mr. Villeroy de Galhau, over the whole year, the decline in growth “Will be higher than that, since during the restart the activity remains partial”. The government is also counting on an 8% drop in GDP for 2020.

As INSEE had already diagnosed, the economy has turned “Almost three quarters” in April, when the March shutdown with containment put a third of the economy to sleep.

An “improvement” which is explained by the adaptation of certain companies to health security conditions

“In total, whereas a month ago we estimated the loss of GDP over a typical confinement week in March at around 32%, our new estimate for a typical confinement week in April is around – 27% “, specifies the Bank of France in its note of conjuncture, delivered Tuesday, May 12. A ” improvement “ which can be explained by the adaptation of certain companies to health security conditions, particularly in industry and construction. The automotive sector remained the most affected industrial sector in April and the one with the most dismal prospects for a recovery.

In services, it was those devoted to companies that resisted the best in April, and in particular those who were able to set up telework massively. Three sectors use telework more than 70%: publishing, IT, and legal and accounting activities. Their level of activity was felt: it was higher in April. It should be noted that the service sector most affected, apart from the hotel and catering industry which is almost at a standstill, is that of the temporary worker, closely followed by car repair.

Restarting will depend a lot on household behavior

What will be the restart of the activity now that the containment is lifted? “If I had to give a level of ambitionsaid the governor, we could regain another ten activity points until the end of May “… The economy would then hover around 80%.

You have 38.57% of this article to read. The suite is reserved for subscribers.

–