The alert threshold has been crossed in Reunion. With an incidence rate of 53.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over one week, the department nevertheless remains in moderate vigilance. Two indicators have not yet reached the critical thresholds, Réunion is not in the red.
The number of new cases of Covid has continued to increase in recent weeks. As proof, the incidence rate, namely the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week, fell from 5 at the beginning of August to 53.8 this Sunday, according to data from Public Health France. The alert threshold has been crossed. Ditto for the effective reproduction number, the famous “R”.
The alert threshold is crossed
A 53.8, the alert threshold has now been crossed. Indeed, this threshold is set at 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week. If last Friday, during the update made by the authorities, the latest updated data indicated that the incidence rate was 43.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, this is no longer the case.
Incidence rate in Reunion Island from 20-08-20 to 26-08-20
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Other alert threshold crossed that of the effective reproduction number, or “R”. The “R” corresponds to the average number of people infected by each person with Covid. According to Public Health France, this indicator is also in the red. The alert threshold, set at 1.5, has indeed been exceeded since, according to the latest data, it reached 1.89 on Tuesday, August 25.
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The growing number of new cases on the island will have been a game-changer. Just yesterday, 70 new cases were confirmed by the authorities, for a total of 1,557 cases in Reunion since the first case appeared on March 11.
Local circulation, 90% indigenous cases
In mid-June, it was first of all the imported cases that increased, with the strengthening of flights from mainland France and Mayotte, explain the authorities. But these cases began to decrease from mid-July and the implementation of the obligation of prior testing before boarding for flights to Reunion.
Since August 10, indigenous cases have been the most numerous, representing 90% of new cases. The circulation of the virus has therefore increased among the population, including beyond the clusters identified. 18 of these sources of contamination are currently considered to be active in the department.
18 active sources of contamination, a number probably underestimated
Among the municipalities affected by these outbreaks, we find Saint-Denis with 12 clusters including 1 in more than 50 cases, Sainte-Marie with 2 clusters of 5 and 9 cases, The Port with 1 cluster of 4 cases, La Possession with 1 cluster of 5 cases, Sainte-Anne with 1 cluster linked to that of Plaine-des-Palmistes with a total of 6 cases, Saint-André with 1 cluster and Le Tampon with 1 cluster of 6 cases.
90% of the clusters identified are linked to festive and family events. According to Santé Publique France, it is likely that the number of clusters identified is underestimated. Faced with this situation, the Prefect of Reunion has taken several measures including the ban on gatherings of more than 10 people in public spaces until September 13, the obligation to wear a mask in closed public spaces and in certain outdoor public places, or the ban on the practice of contact and team sports until September 13.
Reunion is not going into the red
If the alert thresholds for the incidence rate and the number of reproduction “R” are crossed, this is not enough to classify Reunion in a “red” department. In fact, a total of 4 indicators are taken into account for this. The two other elements to take into consideration are the positivity rate of PCR tests and the occupancy rate of intensive care beds.
For the PCR positive rate, the latest data from Public Health France date back to Thursday August 26, it was then 2.9%, or below the vigilance threshold established at 5% and you alert threshold at 10%.
The occupancy rate of intensive care beds was reaching 15.4% on Monday August 24, 8 people were then taken care of. An increasing rate this Sunday, since last night the authorities announced that 15 patients were in intensive care. The vigilance threshold would also not be crossed, because estimated at 40% occupancy. The alert threshold is 60%, but the occupancy of intensive care beds by patients other than those with Covid must also be taken into account.
Martinique and Guadeloupe classified red
The two overseas departments were recently classified red by the health authorities, yet their indicators are not always higher than those of Reunion. It is therefore difficult to anticipate a possible classification of our department in the coming days.
The incidence rate of Guadeloupe is 90.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week, which is still far from the 53.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week in Réunion. On the other hand, that of the Martinique stands at 40.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over one week, it is thus lower than that of Reunion.
Their effective reproduction number, or “R”, is lower than that of Réunion, but the occupancy rate of intensive care beds in Guadeloupe is higher. The positivity rate for PCR tests is high in Guadeloupe, ie 8.6%. In Martinique, it is 3.8%, which is higher than Reunion.
The prefect of Reunion, Jacques Billant, is due to speak next Friday. A particularly awaited intervention.
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