With the fighting in Sudan entering its third month now, and no sign of the battles abating, the magazine “Foreign PolicyThe conflict between the two rival generals is not just an internal conflict, but extends to a competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia to strengthen their regional presence and control of Sudan.
The magazine stated that several ceasefire agreements in Sudan were violated by the army commander, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his rival, Lieutenant General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hamidti”, commander of the Rapid Support Forces.
The magazine talked about the importance of Sudan in the region, noting that it is “a bridge connecting the Middle East and Africa, and its abundant natural resources mean that the battle for Khartoum has taken on a regional dimension.”
She indicated that Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two Gulf countries with the greatest weight, consider that “the war is an opportunity to consolidate their dominant position in the Middle East, and while Saudi Arabia supports Al-Burhan, the UAE supports Hamidti.”
And “Foreign Policy” believes that, given the international legitimacy of Al-Burhan, the chances of the RSF’s victory over the Sudanese army are slim.
It is more likely, according to the magazine, that Al-Burhan and Hamidti are establishing competing areas of control in Sudan that mimic the situation in Libya, where the constant competition between the various political and military factions has led to the creation of a fragmented state with multiple centers of power.
In such a scenario, the magazine stated, “The Rapid Support Forces will be a thorn in the side of Al-Burhan and his external actors, which gives the UAE additional influence in the country’s future and helps establish Abu Dhabi as a prominent emerging power in the Gulf.”
According to the magazine, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, both members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, have been virtual allies for decades, but their current relationship has become about the competition for regional supremacy that is now escalating.
She explained that in recent years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expanded their competition to include Africa, especially Sudan, due to its strategic location and multiple resources.
According to the magazine, the Gulf states have played an important role in Sudan since the overthrow of Bashir, and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh immediately funded the Transitional Military Council that took power, with $3 billion in aid.
At the time, Saudi and Emirati interests in Sudan were generally aligned, according to the magazine, which explained that both helped play a role in the country’s short-lived democratic transition. The two countries also extracted concessions from Khartoum, including Sudan’s provision of military support to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and the UAE mediated for Khartoum’s accession to the Abraham Accords.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have long invested in the Sudanese economy. As of 2018, Abu Dhabi has cumulatively invested $7.6 billion in Sudan. Since the fall of Bashir, the UAE has added another $6 billion in investments, including agricultural projects and a port on the Red Sea.
And in October 2022, Riyadh announced that it would invest up to $24 billion in sectors of the Sudanese economy including infrastructure, mining and agriculture, according to the magazine.
As emerging dominant powers in the Middle East, the magazine stated that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are now “at odds, each seeking to control Sudan’s resources, energy, and logistics gateways by aligning with Burhan and Hamiti, respectively.”
The UAE gained confidence in Hemedti, because RSF fighters have been active in southern Yemen since 2015. And in 2019, it expanded into Libya to support General Khalifa Haftar, one of the rival leaders in the country backed by Abu Dhabi, according to the magazine.
And while Saudi Arabia cooperated with Egypt in supporting Al-Burhan, the UAE cooperated with Russia in supporting the Rapid Support Forces through the Wagner paramilitary group, which has been operating in Sudan since 2017, when it signed contracts with the country’s Ministry of Resources for projects in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces were located. active.
Reports also indicate that Hamidti acted as a guard for Emirati interests in Sudan, guarding the gold mines controlled by the Wagner Company, as gold is shipped from these mines to the Emirates on its way to Russia.
Therefore, the magazine concluded, “The fall of Sudan under the control of Al-Burhan or Hamidti, and thus either the Saudi or Emirati sphere of influence, would change the balance of power in the Gulf and escalate tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. But it is unlikely that the outcome of the war will be that clear, as it is expected Repeating the Libya scenario, in which Sudan will be divided into different spheres of power, perhaps on the basis of ethnic and tribal affiliations.
#fighting #Sudan #turn #proxy #war #Saudi #Arabia #UAE
2023-07-12 23:44:40
