Stock index futures[Weekly outlook]- Will the Nikkei 225 average dominate following Nvidia’s financial results? | Market conditions – Stock search news

This week’s Nikkei 225 futures are likely to be focused on market trends following the financial results of US company NVDA>. Last week in the US market, the consumer price index (CPI) for October fell short of market expectations, leading to expectations for interest rate hikes to be halted and expectations for next year’s interest rate cuts to rise. With long-term interest rates in the U.S. showing signs of a downward trend, investors are turning their attention to high-tech stocks, including large-cap tech stocks.

The Nasdaq rose to 14,194 points at one point last week, approaching the year-to-date high of 14,446 points set on July 19, and depending on Nvidia’s financial results, it could provide support for tech stocks. Be expected. If the tech-led rise seems to gain momentum, the Nikkei 225 will likely be pushed up by the high-impact values ​​of the index in Japan, which will spread to tech stocks.

Last week’s Nikkei 225 futures rose by 740 yen on the 15th, surpassing the return high of 33,450 yen on September 15th, and after that, they remained in the high range, but on the 16th they briefly reached 33,620 yen. I was disappointed. The large rise on the 15th caused the stock to break above +2σ of the Bollinger Bands, raising concerns about short-term overheating, but the stock continued to trend upward while cooling down the overheating by holding high prices.

+2σ has risen to around 33,820 yen as of the night session, and +1σ has risen to around 32,910 yen. Additionally, the 25-day moving average, which is trending upward, has risen to 33,000 yen, and a golden cross with the 75-day moving average, which is trending around 33,060 yen, is approaching. Weekly +2σ has been rounded up to 33,930 yen, +1σ has been rounded up to 33,100 yen, and in an upward trend, the year-to-date high of 33,710 yen reached on June 19th is within range. Dew. Even at a new high, the price remains below +2σ, so the sense of overheating is not increasing, and it seems likely that it will invite further short covering.

In addition, due to the downward trend in long-term interest rates in the US, the yen has been appreciating at the 149 yen level to the dollar in the foreign exchange market, and it is thought that there is short covering from carry transactions. Although the NY crude oil futures market showed a rebound at the end of last week, it fell to the $72.90/barrel level on the 16th, the lowest level since July, and there is likely to be a rebalancing from value to growth.

Last week was Tokyo Electron. <8035> [東証Ｐ]The upward revision was received favorably and the price reached a new high since listing. It is easy to take profits from the recent strong price movements of high-tech stocks, but it is also easy to take intermittent short covering, and it is easy to take Nikkei 225 futures towards long positions aiming for a dip.

Last weekend, the NT multiple fell to 14.02x for futures contracts, falling below the 200-day line at 14.05x.applied materialsThe stock fell sharply in after-hours trading after it was reported that the company was being investigated for violating export regulations to China, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks. However, although Applied Materials was sold in the U.S. market on the 17th, the decline narrowed after the sell-off ended, and the impact was limited.

In addition, the NT multiple exceeded the 52-week line due to last week’s rise, and at one point was touching the 26-week line. Since it had surpassed +2σ and was approaching +3σ, it was also a level that could be bounced back.Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous American investor Warren BuffettHowever, it appears that there was a shift towards value stocks as the company reportedly raised 122 billion yen through yen bonds. However, although it depends on Nvidia’s financial results, it is likely that the correction has come to an end as the price has fallen below +2σ on the weekly basis due to the decline over the weekend, and we assume a rebalancing move in response to the decline from the June high of 14.69 times.

Furthermore, the VIX index fell to 13.80. This is the first time the stock has closed below 14.00 since September 15th, forming a trend targeting the low of 12.68 made on the same day. Currently, the price has fallen below the consolidating range between 15.00 and short covering is likely to become stronger.

In addition, the 23rd will be closed this week for Labor Day, and the United States will also be closed for Thanksgiving Day.While expectations for the year-end sales season are likely to rise, last weekHowever, it is important to pay attention to the possibility that uncertainty surrounding consumption will become a burden, as the economy has fallen sharply due to the cautious outlook.

According to the buying and selling trends by investment sector for the second week of November (November 6th to 110th), overseas investors were net buyers of spot and futures for two consecutive weeks, with a net purchase amount of 1,126.6 billion yen ( In the first week of November, net purchases amounted to 217.5 billion yen). In addition, spot stocks are net buyers of 78.3 billion yen (net purchases of 57.6 billion yen) for the third consecutive week, and futures are net buyers of 1,048.2 billion yen (net purchases of 159.9 billion yen) for the second consecutive week. There is. Individuals were net sellers for the second consecutive week, totaling 385.5 billion yen in spot and futures. Trust banks were net sellers for a total of 177.9 billion yen in cash and futures, marking the first time in three weeks that they were net sellers.

The economic schedule includes the US October Conference Board Economic Leading Index on the 20th, the US October existing home sales number on the 21st, and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceedings (held from October 31st to November 1st). ), US October Durable Goods Orders on the 22nd, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final figures for the US November, October National Consumer Price Index on the 24th, September Business Conditions Index final figures, Black Friday, US 11 The monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the US Services Industry Index (PMI) are scheduled for November.

–Playback Market–

●SQ value
December contract Nikkei 225 27576.37 TOPIX 1945.27
January contract Nikkei 225 26325.21 TOPIX 1900.71
February contract Nikkei 225 27779.75 TOPIX 1986.19
March contract Nikkei 225 28377.34 TOPIX 2047.32
April contract Nikkei 225 28519.43 TOPIX 2019.76
May contract Nikkei 225 29235.08 TOPIX 2090.33
June contract Nikkei 225 32018.38 TOPIX 2211.13
July contract Nikkei 225 32484.24 TOPIX 2245.68
August contract Nikkei 225 32013.86 TOPIX 2278.68
September contract Nikkei 225 32921.39 TOPIX 2370.93
October contract Nikkei 225 32360.91 TOPIX 2326.75
November contract Nikkei 225 32454.88 TOPIX 2318.99

◆Nikkei 225 futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day
23/12 November 17th 33450 33610 33210 33600 +150
23/12 November 16 33470 33620 33220 33450 ±0
23/12 November 15th 32700 33560 32700 33450 +740
23/12 November 14th 32600 32850 32570 32710 +140
23/12 November 13th 32610 33000 32420 32570 -10

◇TOPIX futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day
23/12 November 17th 2372.0 2395.5 2358.5 2395.5 +24.5
23/12 November 16 2370.0 2384.5 2359.0 2371.0 +1.0
23/12 November 15th 2343.0 2381.5 2343.0 2370.0 +26.5
23/12 November 14th 2341.0 2358.5 2338.0 2343.5 +4.5
23/12 November 13th 2336.5 2357.5 2328.0 2339.0 +2.0

●Chicago Nikkei Average Yen-denominated
Settlement price Osaka comparison from the previous day
November 17th (December contract) 33530 -70
November 16th (December contract) 33405 -45
November 15th (December contract) 33385 -65
November 14th (December contract) 33210 +500
November 13th (December contract) 32780 +210
*The change from the previous day is compared to the closing price of the Osaka Exchange.

□Cash position arbitrage balance (amount) related to arbitrage trading
Sell ​​Compared to the previous weekend Buy Compared to the previous weekend
November 10th 6.0 billion yen -34.9 billion yen 667.4 billion yen +152.6 billion yen
November 2nd 40.9 billion yen +5.3 billion yen 514.8 billion yen +116.3 billion yen
October 27th 35.6 billion yen +200 million yen 398.4 billion yen -183.6 billion yen
October 20th 35.3 billion yen -12.3 billion yen 582.1 billion yen -89.6 billion yen

□Cash position (number of shares) related to arbitrage trading
Selling Change from previous day Buying Change from previous day
November 15: 2.84 million plants + 230,000 plants 295.45 million plants + 20.34 million plants
November 14: 2.6 million plants: 0 plants: 275.1 million plants – 1.49 million plants
November 13: 2.6 million plants + 1.16 million plants 276.6 million plants – 2.67 million plants
November 10: 1.43 million plants, 0 plants, 279.27 million plants – 3.96 million plants
November 9: 1.43 million plants – 1.38 million plants 283.23 million plants + 13.19 million plants
On November 8, 2.82 million plants – 4.76 million plants, 270.04 million plants – 4.19 million plants
On November 7, 7.59 million plants – 2.56 million plants, 274.23 million plants + 200,000 plants
November 6: 10.15 million plants – 570,000 plants 274.03 million plants + 43.95 million plants
November 2: 10.73 million plants + 950,000 plants 230.08 million plants + 4.49 million plants
November 1, 9.77 million pieces – 300,000 pieces, 225.58 million pieces + 47.71 million pieces
On October 31, 10.08 million plants – 350,000 plants, 177.86 million plants – 10.06 million plants
October 30: 10.43 million plants + 530,000 plants 187.93 million plants + 2.96 million plants

■Trends in index-linked exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases by the Bank of Japan (regular ETF portion)
【2022】
January 14th 70.1 billion yen
January 25th 70.1 billion yen
February 14th 70.1 billion yen
March 7th 70.1 billion yen
April 7th 70.1 billion yen
May 19th 70.1 billion yen
June 13th 70.1 billion yen
June 17th 70.1 billion yen
December 2nd 70.1 billion yen
【2023】
March 13th 70.1 billion yen
March 14th 70.1 billion yen
October 4th 70.1 billion yen

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