MILANO – The European lists end weak and contended on the day when the meeting of the Federal Reserve, the American Central Bank, starts, which according to analysts’ expectations will lead Governor Jerome Powell to double tapering (i.e. tighten monthly purchases from 15 to 30 billion ) and to definitively overcome the concept of “temporary” inflation. How “hawk” the reconfirmed US banker will be, is the question that is asked in the operating rooms waiting for the answer that will arrive tomorrow.
The Fed is just one of the twenty appointments (ECB, BoE among others) on the agenda this week for what concerns the central banks. A busy calendar in which inflation and the means to counter it are at the top of the agenda, but which happens just as the Omicron variant returns to bring countermeasures by governments and concerns on the markets. “Volatility will remain high throughout this week of decision making” by central institutions, Oanda analyst Edward Moya noted in a statement. “2022 will still be a year of strong global growth, but the hawkish acceleration of central banks could be the factor justifying the first major retreat of US equities.”
In Europe, the main squares are almost all oriented downwards. Milano it is the best and stops just above parity at + 0.02%. Focus on the board of directors plan of the Generali, but also about Tim with Kkr who specified how his offer is friendly. The others that become heavier with the opening of Wall Street are of opposite sign: London fa -0.21% Frankfurt -1,08%, Paris -0.69 %%. The US stock market is proceeding below zero: at the conclusion of EU trade, the Dow Jones drops 0.31% and the Nasdaq 1.79%.
Last night Wall Street closed sharply (-0.9% the S & P500) and weighed on Asian exchanges, furthermore worried by the situation in the Chinese real estate sector: now Shimao is in the crosshairs, which is among the many real estate companies which face tighter controls on debt levels that have caught some heavily indebted companies short of cash to meet debt obligations. In China, the story of Weibo, the most used social platform in the Asian economy, which has been fined by the internet regulator for posting illegal information, in violation of the Child Protection Act and other laws and regulations. China’s censorship-controlled Twitter has ordered to “immediately rectify and deal seriously with relevant responsible persons,” the CyberSpace Administration of China said in a statement, and China’s internet regulator has imposed a fine of three million yuan (418 thousand euros) to the social network. There Tokyo Stock Exchange closed trading with a negative 0.73% at 28.32.64. In flexion too Hong Kong, which falls by 1.4%, while Shanghai is down by 0.6%.
Among the macroeconomic data it should be noted that the Japanese industrial production in October, it increased by 1.8% monthly, revised from a preliminary reading of 1.1%, while on an annual basis, the raw figure decreased by 4.1%, revised from 4.7%, according to the data. definitive issued by the ministry of economy, trade and industry. Industrial production also rises in the Eurozone: the figure is up by 1.1% compared to September, according to estimates by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Compared to October 2020, industrial production increased by 3.3% in the euro area and 3.6% in the EU.
The Ifo institute on the other hand has lowered its growth forecast for Germany in 2022 by 1.4 percentage points and raised it by 1.4 percentage points for 2023. “Continuing supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus are slowing the German economy significantly. The strong post-pandemic recovery which was originally scheduled for 2022 has not materialized yet, ”says Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at ifo. Economic output will grow 2.5% in 2021, but only 3.7% next year. In 2023, growth will be 2.9%.
Euro stable: the single currency changes hands at 1.1274 dollars and slightly up against the yen, at 128.14. Dollar / yen rose slightly to 113.69. Great focus on the Bitcoin, which trades below $ 47 thousand after yesterday lost more than 6 percentage points: now the decline from the peak in November is in the order of 30%. According to observers, the major digital currency is a bit like the canary in the mine (Chris Weston of Pepperstone Financial Pty, quoted by Bloomberg) which is realizing that central banks are starting to cut liquidity. But, say others, compared to a few years ago there are also retail investors to support the possibility of a rebound.
Among the commodities, the prices of the Petroleum they moved down on the Asian markets then tried the rebound route: the WTI advanced by 0.25% to 71.45 dollars a barrel, the Brent by 0.31% to 74.62 dollars. Again, the health scenario is always kept in sight: Great Britain and Norway have tightened restrictions after the official reporting of the first death for Omicron in the UK. China, for its part, has reported the first case of the variant in the port city of Tianjin, while the quarantine of the main manufacturing province of Zhejiang is fighting its first outbreak this year, with tens of thousands of citizens in quarantine and the suspension of commercial operations and cancellation of flights and events. Not surprisingly, “due to the new restrictions on international travel, we have revised down our forecast for global oil demand for 2021 and 2022 by an average of 100,000 barrels / day, mainly to take into account the reduced use of fuels. “, says the Aie, International Energy Agency, in its monthly report.
Always among the commodities continues the gas stroke after yesterday’s leap following the threats by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to block transit to Europe in the event of tougher sanctions against Minsk (words that yesterday had caused costs to skyrocket to 11%). At the Dutch hub TTF, prices rose by 3.2% this morning to 119.5 euros per Mwh, while UK prices increased by 2.8% to 3.30 pounds per therm.