The pandemic due to the coronavirus has left significant traces on the financial markets and could still lead to a stock market correction in the second half of the year, it is said at Saxo Bank.
Equity markets remain strong but signs of tension are appearing in the bond market, particularly in the United States, due to concerns about the outlook for the US economy, writes Christopher Dembik, head of macroeconomic research for the Danish bank, in a note published on Friday.
“History teaches us that bond investors are more often right than equity investors,” he writes. “In other words, the risk of having a stock market correction in H2, potentially before the American election (in November), is significant, all the more so if, as we anticipate, the scenario of a V-shaped rebound in the economy does not materialize. “
On the stock market, where only the American indices have returned to positive territory since the start of the year, the pre-crisis trends have been accentuated with a massive withdrawal of investors in listed companies in a monopoly or quasi-monopoly position. , he underlines before insisting on the weight of the gloves of technology on the Nasdaq.
“In recent months, we have seen a rotation towards growth stocks and consumer stocks which are generally more resilient than others in times of recession,” a particularly noteworthy phenomenon in the United States and in emerging countries , we read in the note.
(Patrick Vignal, said by Bertrand Boucey)
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