Boris Johnson was still celebrating in style – within the limits of pandemic legality – the departure of the United Kingdom from the EU and the newly won “freedom” when Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon threw a jug over his head of ice water. He wrote on his Twitter page: “Scotland will soon return home, Europe. Don’t turn off the light so that we can find our way back ”.
The message from the nationalist leader was a reminder, only on the second day of the new post-Brexit reality, that the thing is not over far from it, and the conflictive relationship of England above all, and of Great Britain in general, with the European continent will continue for the foreseeable future. So it was after De Gaulle’s two refusals to open the doors to the United Kingdom, so it was after Edward Heath’s entry in ’73, so it was after Margaret Thatcher got her “check” and her privileges, so she has been after the referendum result, and it will continue to do so. It is the law of life, a certainty like death and that the Treasury is going to claim taxes from you.
Sturgeon, with a simple tweet, has ended the euphoria of those who hoped that the United Kingdom was going to turn the page after almost half a century of “European conflict”, and the different political tribes were going to unite to make the most of possible match to the economic opportunities – if there are any – that Brexit raises, and to focus on optimizing an economy drowned by the pandemic, in the search for a better balance between north and south, in improving infrastructure, health and education, as Johnson says in his messages.
Seventeen consecutive polls give sovereignty the upper hand, and the difference rises every time Johnson speaks
But that hope, fueled also by Labor leader Keir Starmer (Brexit has posed insoluble dilemmas for his party), has been thrown by Sturgeon to the stake of political illusions. In May there are autonomous elections in Scotland, the SNP is the big favorite to win them, it would interpret its victory as a mandate to demand a second referendum as soon as possible, and the more Johnson denies it, the more support for independence will increase (which already leads in seventeen consecutive polls, in the last one from 58% to 42%). Every time Boris opens his mouth, sovereignty rises higher. And the opposition does not even have the option of changing leaders like the PSC in Catalonia. The Conservatives recently took over, and Labor is north of the border
still more paralyzed than to the south.
Preventing the rupture of the Union is for Downing Street the next great challenge, along with stopping the economic coup without tax increases that turn the Conservatives themselves against the Government. For this, he relies on the economic arguments (the English “subsidy” to Scotland, the currency, the advantages of Brexit for the fishing sector), and above all on the desire of the people to focus on everyday problems and consider closed the Europe chapter. The problem is that the former are a bit exhausted (they are the same as those of the 2014 referendum), and Sturgeon responded to the latter in his message: Europe, we want to return, do not leave us abandoned.
The Labor Left is happy with Brexit, but the “centrist” sector that follows Tony Blair is not.
Not just Scotland. A part of the remainers English and Welsh, as much as there is a general disgust with Brexit and serious doubts about its convenience, are not resistant to giving up the battle as lost, at least on an ideological level and with an eye on the horizon. The classic Labor left is happy, since it has always seen the EU as a “capitalist club” dedicated to preserving corporate interests, it interprets the break as a victory for democracy and the rejection of the status quo, it thinks that Greece was unjustly forced to accept austerity for ideological reasons, and sees the “four freedoms” of the single market (movement of people, capital, goods and services) as the four pillars of financial neoliberalism. On the other hand, the followers of Blair – winner of three consecutive elections and who found the magic formula to steal power from the US for more than a decade. tories – They believe that the EU has more advantages than defects, and fears that Brexit will change the dependence of Europe for submission to the US, and be the instrument to reduce regulations and turn the country into a great tax haven.
Crystal balls, some in the shape of the Delphic oracle, can be found on Amazon. The question is: will the UK ever ask to return to the EU? In the short term, in the long term you never know.
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