Scientists have developed a digital twin of Earth’s water cycle to improve forecasts and disaster preparedness. The water cycle, consisting of evaporation, condensation, and precipitation, is a fundamental process that sustains life on our planet. However, predicting water-based natural disasters such as flooding, landslides, and droughts is challenging due to the continuously changing climate and human activities. To overcome these challenges, scientists are building a digital twin of Earth that contains high-resolution data covering every inch of the planet.
Funded by the European Space Agency, the project aims to create a system that allows non-experts, including decision-makers and citizens, to run interactive simulations. The lead author of the study, Luca Brocca of the National Research Council of Italy, explains that the digital twin will enable scientists to input new data and simulate best-case and worst-case natural disaster scenarios in different environments. By replicating events like landslides, researchers can monitor associated risks and conditions in real-time, enhancing preparedness for future destructive events.
Creating these models required harnessing satellite data from various Earth observations. Scientists blended measurements from soil moisture, precipitation, snow depth, evaporation, and river discharge to paint a comprehensive picture of the water cycle’s dynamics across the planet. The high-resolution data obtained from these models serves as an interactive tool for scientists.
Brocca and his colleagues initially focused on modeling the Po River valley in Northern Italy and other parts of the Mediterranean basin. Their future plans involve creating similar models across Europe and collaborating with scientists from other continents. The primary goal of the project is to forecast floods and landslides accurately and improve water resource management.
While the team’s modeling currently focuses on larger-scale regions, they also have plans to conduct more localized studies. However, they acknowledge the need for ongoing improvements in their algorithms as more data is added. Additionally, ground observations are necessary to verify the satellite data used in the models.
To address uncertainties associated with satellite data, Brocca plans to incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into the program. AI would act as an extra set of eyes, minimizing errors caused by changes in atmospheric conditions during image capture. This collaboration between AI and human engineers would save time and improve accuracy.
The collaborative efforts of scientists, space agencies, and decision-makers promise a future where digital twin Earths for hydrology provide invaluable insights for sustainable water management and disaster resilience. The study was published in the journal Frontiers in Science on March 5th. With ongoing advancements in technology and data analysis, scientists are optimistic about their ability to predict and mitigate water-based natural disasters effectively.
