Chief physician Clemens Wendtner from the Clinic for Infectious Diseases in the Munich Clinic Schwabing, where seven of the twelve infected in Germany are treated, considers the danger of the coronavirus to be overestimated.
Schwabingen doctor rates mortality considerably lower
Mortality is said to be two to three percent in China, Wendtner said. But: “We think that is overestimated. We assume that the mortality rate is well below one percent, rather even in the alcohol range.” This is a similar size to that of influenza. It doesn’t have much to do with a very, very dangerous disease – the coronavirus is in no way more dangerous than influenza. The overvaluation stems from the fact that in China only the severe cases are admitted to hospitals because of the capacity bottlenecks; the number of unreported cases is high.
The risk of infection in Germany is very low
Basically, the coronavirus is similarly contagious as the influenza virus – but significantly less infectious than measles. Keeping a distance and washing your hands regularly reduce the risk considerably. Nobody has to wear a face mask in everyday life. “That doesn’t work,” said the doctor, also referring to the extremely low number of infected people in Germany. In contrast to the flu, which affects several hundred thousand people each year, the likelihood of getting corona in this country is very low.
Wendtner, like his colleagues from the Charité in Berlin and the Bundeswehr Institute for Microbiology, believes that corona patients can be contagious even with very weak symptoms. In some of them, contagious viruses were also found in large numbers in the nasopharynx area. Whether there is also a risk of infection through stool is currently being investigated.
Don’t panic every time you cough
The corona symptoms are easily confused with influenza or a cold: At first the nose can run, the patient suffers from sore throat, later also coughing and possibly fever. But: Not everyone who coughs is equally suspicious of a corona infection.
In uncomplicated cases, the doctor assumes that the disease lasts about ten days to two weeks. It is different if there are complications, such as an additional bacterial infection – often as pneumonia – due to the weakening of the organism or an excessive immune response, which could also lead to pneumonia.
Less dramatic development expected in Europe
He does not assume that the virus will spread in Germany and Europe in a similar epidemic manner as in China, said Wendtner. “We have a very good health system to contain things early. If we continue to pull together, we will keep it under control in Germany.”
Corona could appear in annual waves in the future
However, it is unclear whether the virus, like influenza, can persist worldwide or disappear completely.
“The question is: Will the corona virus manage to establish itself in a similar way to influenza, so that we get a corona wave every year. The aim of global measures – including in Germany – is to ideally switch off the virus completely.” Clemens Wendtner, Chief Physician Infectious Diseases at Munich Clinic Schwabing
Vaccine could be ready in early summer
Not least because of this, work is being carried out on a vaccine, particularly in the USA, which could be available in a few months. There is initial speculation that the time may come in May or June, says Wendtner. “But of course we all hope that things will be over for China by then.”
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