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The pandemic of the new coronavirus will decline only after it infects 70-80% of the world’s population. Until most people get sick, self-isolation will only play the role of a deterrent, and when the restrictive measures are weakened, a second wave of the epidemic will erupt.
According to the chief researcher at the National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology named after N.F. Gamalei, academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Felix Ershov, “the virus is now carried by healthy carriers that act as a natural vaccine and contribute to the creation of collective immunity.”
At the moment, the number of asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus in the Russian Federation is approximately estimated at 45-50% of all infected. And in Moscow their share is up to 60%.
“On the one hand, it would seem good, but on the other it is very dangerous because carriers infect both old and chronically ill people, and these people cannot withstand such a viral load … This infection is very contagious (contagious). Mortality it’s relatively small, but nationwide these 0.3% can look monstrous. Look, in those countries where they didn’t take strict measures immediately, a fire started. In England, they decided: who should be ill – will be ill, and who should die – will die And they did not take into account that among the population there are many elderly citizens with weakened health, “the academician recalled in an interview with MK.
Asymptomatic carriers, not knowing that they are sick, not only threaten others, but they themselves may be at risk of reactive deterioration, quickly turning into severe patients. Even the “asymptomatic” on computed tomography show lung damage – the so-called frosted glass effect.
“If you test it today, it may turn out that many children in the same Moscow, having become infected, became carriers of this virus, and then they were safely asymptomatic,” the academician says.
Ershov, comparing COVID-19 and conventional flu, noted that they both belong to ARVI. “They have much in common, but the flu as an infection is two heads above the“ crown. ”Both in terms of mortality and complications. As one of the doctors said, the flu is our constant companion. He has already been living with us since the time of the father of medicine – Hippocrates: For many centuries, regular outbreaks of influenza have been called “catarrh of the upper respiratory tract,” because the viruses have not yet been discovered. And the coronavirus “showed teeth” only in the 21st century. Before that, it was quiet and modest … The contingent of young people often carries the flu on their feet (with a slight, at first glance, flow). And this is a big mistake, because In May, young people have a high mortality rate with influenza, and the cause is complications that occur with influenza later … This is the difference between coronavirus and influenza. Old people suffer from the first, young people from the second, “says Academician Ershov, who has been working for over half a century virus research and drug development.
Due to the fact that the second wave of infections is inevitable until the vast majority of the population is vaccinated or ill, the World Health Organization warned countries about the need for careful and gradual removal of isolation regimes.
If the restrictions are lifted too soon, a new outbreak will occur, says Takeshi Kasai, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. He said that humanity does not yet understand what danger it is facing. And people need to get used to the new lifestyle.
“At least before the advent of a vaccine or a very effective treatment, this process should become a new norm for us,” Kasai said.
As MK recalls, in general, the number of viruses trillions of times exceeds the number of all plants and animals combined. To date, only 2,321 types of viruses have been discovered in the world. This number includes viruses of vertebrates, plants, invertebrates, bacteria, fungi, archaea, as well as viruses of algae and protozoa.
For people, 25 families and 87 genera of viruses that contain thousands of types and subtypes are dangerous. And the number of individual viral particles of each species, type, subtype or even strain of the virus can not be counted.
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