Main
• The Russian market held a sideways trading session. Oil stocks were put under pressure by falling oil prices, as well as the strengthening of the ruble. Against the backdrop of a strong national currency, the metallurgy and mining sector lagged behind.
• The ruble rose in price throughout the session, updating local peaks. The USD/RUB pair dropped to 93.4. The RTS index reached its highs since December 2022.
• OFZ quotes were growing at the opening of trading, but by the end of the day they had lost their growth. The RGBI government bond index closed the day in the red.
• Leaders: Rusagro (+5.67%), M.Video (+5.57%), Mechel-AO (+3.67%), INARCTICA (+3.35%).
• Outsiders: TGK-1 (-2.87%), Mosenergo (-1.89%), HeadHunter (-1.28%), Whoosh (-1.27%).
In detail
Russian stock market at the start of trading on Tuesday it sank, losing about 0.7%. However, the decline in the Moscow Exchange index was quickly redeemed; the market spent most of the day sideways. The closure was a symbolic positive. The consumer sector looked better than the market.
On the foreign exchange market The ruble consistently strengthened throughout the trading session, once again updating its local maximum. The dollar dropped to 93.4 rubles, the euro to 98.9 rubles, and the yuan to 12.74.
Factors in favor of strengthening the national currency are high oil prices, regulatory measures on the sale of foreign currency earnings, and the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The Bank of Russia will hold its next meeting on October 27, at which the issue of the key rate will be considered. The most likely scenario is a further rise, which will support the ruble.
The strong national currency acted as a restraining factor for the growth of the Moscow Exchange index; metallurgists and oil workers showed lagging dynamics. At the same time, against the background of the rise of the ruble, the RTS index added 1.03%, breaking through 1110 points – the highest levels since December 2022.
Oil prices throughout the trading session they declined, and by the close of the main session the decline accelerated. A barrel of Brent loses 2.7% to $87.4.
Among the market leaders on Tuesday were shares Rusagro. The securities have been in high demand among investors in recent days. The formal trigger for growth was China’s recent permission to export pork from the Russian Federation. An important medium-term driver in the Rusagro case remains redomiciliation, after which the company will be able to return to paying dividends.
Quotes Surgutneftegaz-ap grew by almost 5%. No specific drivers for strong growth were found. The growth looks especially strange against the background of the strengthening of the ruble. The look at the papers is restrained. There are risks of further strengthening of the ruble, which is negative for profits and potential dividends for 2023.
Actions M Video grew by 5.6% after the release of operating results for the third quarter. Gross sales (GMV) increased by 40% and exceeded the level of the third quarter of 2021 (a record year for the group). EBITDA in the third quarter, as the company expects, will increase by more than 80% y/y and exceed 4 billion rubles. It is also important that management expects a significant reduction in debt burden and a return to a moderate level of load in terms of Net debt/EBITDA at the end of 2023.
Actions TGK-1 sank after the release of the operating report for 9 months. The company reported a 6% decline in power generation. The main point in the TGK-1 case remains the question of the exit from the capital of the company by the Finnish Fortum. As long as non-residents remain shareholders, payment of dividends is unlikely.
Gazprom announced a reduction in the volume of the investment program for 2023 by 334 billion rubles. up to 1966 billion rubles. Shares reacted positively to the news, recouping intraday losses and turning positive. The reduction in the investment program implies less pressure on free cash flow.
The growth leaders were also shares INARCTIC. The company’s board of directors at a meeting on October 26 will consider the issue of dividends for 9 months of 2023.
Mosbourzha reported on the inclusion of shares of the retailer Henderson in the quotation list from November 2.
The Stoxx Europe 50 index of Europe’s largest companies will grow by 0.6%. American indices are trading in positive territory.
BCS World of Investments
2023-10-24 17:00:06
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