The war seems to be postponed until next time. But the recent escalation of tensions along the Russia-West line has confirmed the alarming logic
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Firstly: Russia is ready to throw the world chessboard to the floor. Even the resentment and suspicion of the Kremlin that it is being ignored may become a reason. The threat of dropping the board acts, causing confusion to the object of blackmail.
Secondly: The West has failed to find an answer to the Russian challenge. While liberal democracies try to appease the Kremlin «double track “. In short, a combination of mutually exclusive principles – containment and dialogue.
«Double Track ”was a reaction to the phenomenon that Russia turned out to be. On the one hand, Russia is the antagonist of liberal democracy. On the other hand, Moscow is included in the vital relationships for the West and is partly integrated into the West. (through the rentier class and membership in European institutions).
It is especially difficult for Europe. How can Brussels authorize a state that is a member of the Council of Europe? How to punish your sales partner? So the EU is forced to limit itself to the expression «concerns “about Russian «gambits ”, which became an endless rain.
The incompatibility of deterrence and dialogue raises other problems. Thus, liberal democracies cannot create a mechanism to forestall hostile actions by Moscow. The EU had no intention of imposing sanctions for Russian escalation near Ukraine’s borders. Now, if Russia crossed the border, then Brussels would think. Now, if Navalny is not released by the end of the month, then the Council of Europe will consider whether to suspend Russia’s membership in the Council. But the threat of his death is not a reason for sanctions for Brussels.
The West cannot chart the future «red lines ”, violation of which by Russia should trigger his response. Can’t expose «price tag “for what has not happened yet. The West turns on the sanctions machine, focusing on what has already been accomplished. Hoping that Moscow understands the cost of risks. But the understanding of risks and their prices in Moscow and in Western capitals does not coincide. For the Kremlin, a willingness to take risks may be the only way to get things done.
Biden opted for appeasement tactics with an element of containment
Today, the United States has taken the initiative to form a response to Russia for what it considers to be Russian sins against the United States, and for the escalation near the borders of Ukraine, and for Navalny. The answer was a friend «double track “. Apparently, Washington believes that this time its assurances of readiness «escalate ”the price of Russian escalation will be heard in Moscow.
Perhaps in a non-public exchange of views, the Americans are warning of tough measures. But Biden’s publicly proclaimed sanctions seem like a fatherly slap.
Biden clearly does not want a confrontation with Russia. He is not trying to bring Putin to his knees. He is not eager to collapse the Russian economy or start retribution against people close to Putin.
It is difficult to avoid the feeling that the White House is admitting that it is impossible to force the Kremlin to change its thinking and its view of the world. Therefore, it is necessary to look for a mechanism for coexistence with a dangerous player, which at any time can demonstrate «Weimar syndrome.
Biden wants, as he put it, “modus vivendi.” You can understand Washington. The USA faces a way out of the internal crisis. The United States must withdraw from Afghanistan – a dramatic task for them. The United States must formulate its response to its key challenge – China. Add to this headache Iran and North Korea.
Therefore, it is so important for Biden to freeze the Russian «topic “and deal with their priorities.
In short, Biden opted for appeasement tactics with an element of containment. (which is in the stage of formation). As a result, we see surrealism: the representatives of the American administration promise to make the Kremlin pay dearly if Moscow continues to throw the chessboard. Simultaneously, representatives of both presidents are preparing their summit, at which the leaders are unlikely to throw shoes at each other. Putin speaks at hosted by Biden «climate summit ”. Moscow invites Washington to restore dialogue on preventing cyber threats. Almost reboot!
The Kremlin has achieved its goal – it made America listen to itself and make an offer. It’s not even about the personal ambitions of President Putin. The fact is that Russia is addicted to America as the core of its sovereignty.
They may object to me: but no – the United States has lost its leadership and China is more important for Moscow. Well, of course. Russian troops were deployed to Ukraine to get Beijing’s attention.
But what does Biden get by offering Putin a dialogue? After all, American sanctions «without pain ”can create the impression of American indecision in the Kremlin. What will provoke the Kremlin to new ventures. In addition, Putin’s understanding of the status quo in Ukraine differs from what they think in Ukraine and in Western capitals. And how in this case to achieve «modus vivendi “? Questions, questions.
In the meantime, the Kremlin has achieved its goal and is reducing the intensity. This is also a demonstration of strength – the ability to control a detonator! True, Putin promises the West that the Kremlin will determine where the «red line “. The Kremlin really has another way to respond to the West – to put a skating rink on disgruntled Russians. Isn’t it witty: to make Russian society pay for Western edification.
So, what is next? We have to remind: several American presidents have already tried to implement a policy towards Russia. «double track “- to contain Moscow, while cooperating with it. Everytime «swing ”ended with an exacerbation. For the incompatibility of systemic principles turns out to be stronger than common interests.
In a situation of dwindling resources of influence, the Kremlin will be forced to increasingly rely on power tools, both internally and externally. Not even because of the intoxication of power, but because of the absence of other methods of persuasion. But reliance on force and blackmailing by force will undermine the sophisticated mechanism of the system’s existence – through the economic use of the West. Tactical successes are often paid for by strategic failure.
Most likely, this time, the dialogue between Russia and the West will end in cold rain. But each new breakdown will increase the risks, taking the escalation of tensions to a new level and raising the price that has to be paid for it.
Therefore, the future is alarming. And short gaps should not be perceived as a change in weather.
Text published with permission of the author
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