Stocks of new cars from Europe, the United States and Japan could run out by the end of 2022, writes the Russian newspaper Gazeta. The position of European brands has been taken over by Chinese carmakers, and so-called “parallel importers” who buy cars from countries that still trade with Russia are not lazy either. However, according to the newspaper, this is not enough, and therefore the reduction of high prices in Russian showrooms is not in sight.
“The old stocks will naturally run out, we cannot expect new cars, except for those produced in Russia. And parallel imports will not save the situation”, cites Gazeta by the independent consultant for the automotive industry Sergej Burgazliev. “From January, February to the latest next year, retailers will have to face the fact that there will simply be nothing to sell.”
According to Burgazliev, this is the most realistic scenario, as not a single new production plant will be put into operation by the end of the year. “We only have AvtoVAZ, Haval, Geely, UAZ, GAZ and KamAZ left here,” the expert summed up the bad prospects.
His words are indirectly confirmed by the director of the Avtodom Group of Companies Andrey Olchovsky. According to him, only about fifty Audi cars and Mercedes, MINI and BMW car units remain in dealerships, which were imported even before the “special military operation” began. However, Olchovsky believes that the further development of car sales cannot be reliably determined. “For example, after the mobilization began, the demand has dropped to almost zero. When there is a high probability that I will be mobilized, buying a new car is not the top priority,” says Olchovsky. adding that the sharp decline in interest in new cars may also be linked to Russian banks’ reluctance to lend money to men in the current circumstances.
However, the director of Avtodom doesn’t expect the cars to get cheaper in the near future. According to him, dealers have no reason to do so and in the fourth quarter of this year most of them will end up at a loss anyway.
How much the Russian market is affected by the war and sanctions is highlighted by the AvtoSpecCenter estimate. It is said that by the end of the year a maximum of half a million cars will find buyers, while in the covid year of 2020 there were over 1.6 million.
Although the official propaganda proclaims that the car manufacturers of the “enemy countries” will be replaced without problems by Chinese production of ever higher quality. However, the Russians apparently see it differently. The country is now experiencing a golden age for gray importers who can buy virtually any car for creditworthy customers. According to Olchovský, there is a great hunger for Land Rover models and the new Jeep Grand Cherokee, the Russians are also interested in the electric cars Volkswagen ID.6 or Audi Q5 e-tron. So far gray importers have focused almost exclusively on luxury models, now one of them wants to try it with a more “folks” car.
Although Volkswagen has suspended business in Russia, motorists will still be waiting for German cars. The Avilon company intends to start importing them from China, the plan is for a thousand pieces of the Bora sedan. Although it is a car specially designed for the Chinese market, according to Alexey Starikov of Avilon, the demand for three-seater bodies in Russia is now very high.
“I doubt there will be a queue for a 2.5 million rubles car,” Avilon Burgazliev’s consultant moderates optimism, who does not expect the import of Chinese Volkswagens to save the Russian market. But he agrees that, in order to survive, car dealers have to start importing cars themselves.
After all, some of them started like this in the 90s of the last century. At that time there was a huge interest in brands of Western origin, but the manufacturers did not yet have their representatives here. The director of the Avtostat agency, Sergey Tselikov, eloquently assessed the situation of the Russian market in Gazeta: “Everything that has been built here in twenty years has been destroyed”.
