The vast majority of SPD supporters would refuse to vote for Saskia Esken as candidate for chancellor. In the absence of suitable candidates, most Germans count on Angela Merkel to remain in the saddle until the end of her term.
The new SPD leader Saskia Esken cannot convince even SPD supporters. According to the RTL / ntv trend barometer, 89 percent of SPD supporters Esken would refuse to vote if the Germans had to choose between the social democrat and the Green party leader Robert Habeck in a direct chancellor election. 43 percent would prefer Habeck, 46 percent would not support either. Only eleven percent of SPD supporters would be prepared to elect the new SPD chairwoman as chancellor. Until her candidacy for the federal presidency in summer 2019, Esken was a simple member of the Bundestag. Together with the former NRW Finance Minister Norbert Walter-Borjans, she then narrowly prevailed against Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz.
As chancellor, the SPD supporters see Esken, who the SPD clearly moves to the left and wants to strengthen the influence of politics on the economy, but clearly not. Even in direct competition with the CDU chairwoman Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the SPD front woman would only have a very narrow lead. Not even a quarter of their own party supporters (23 percent) would vote for Esken. 18 percent would prefer AKK as chancellor. 59 percent would not choose either.
Scholz, who was unsuccessful in the election of the chairman, could convince significantly more SPD supporters than candidate for chancellor. In competition with Kramp-Karrenbauer, he would get 60 percent of the SPD votes. Overall, Scholz could count on the support of 31 percent of Germans. Almost three quarters of those entitled to vote (73 percent) would like Angela Merkel to remain chancellor for the full legislative period until 2021. This is not surprising, because “neither the Union nor the SPD currently has a candidate who is convincing to the voters or a candidate for the Chancellery,” said Forsa boss Manfred Güllner.
Bad start of the year for Union and SPD
In party competition, only the FDP can gain one percentage point in the first poll of the new year. The liberals, whose party leader Christian Lindner wants to win new voters among skilled workers in 2020, come to nine percent. At twelve percent, the SPD is just ahead of them and has significantly deteriorated by three percentage points compared to their poll results at the beginning of 2019. For the Social Democrats, the trend barometer – since 1992 – has never started a year as badly as this.
The value of the Union, at 28 points, is also clearly below the value of 32 percent at the beginning of 2019. However, the CDU / CSU had a worse start to the new year – in February 2000, after the Kohl donation scandal became known, its value was 26 percent below the current value.
Greens, Leftists and AfD hold their results from the end of last year. The Greens could count on the support of 22 percent of those eligible to vote, 13 percent could convince the AfD, the left would have 8 percent. An alliance of CDU, CSU and Greens would also be able to govern at the beginning of 2020 with a combined 50 percent.
At the beginning of the year, as in early 2019, only a few Germans (four percent) trust the SPD to cope best with the problems in Germany. The Union believes this ability is almost five times more likely to vote (19 percent) but significantly less than a year ago (25 percent). The Greens currently consider Germany to be the most competent party on political issues in Germany. 55 percent would not attribute either party the ability to solve the problems in the country.
– ,
