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Timothy Ash: Putin will fully play this card this winter (Photo: REUTERS)
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Six months from now, Putin must no doubt be wondering if he can really win this war.
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I thought it would be worth updating my thoughts on Ukraine, and especially where this war is going, as the duration and ultimate damage caused by the conflict will be key to understanding Ukraine’s long-term economic history – the demands for recovery.
First, it is difficult to predict anything in this conflict. We have seen the ebb and flow of this war with Moscow’s first apparent blitzkrieg and most people’s assumption that it will all end in a few days with a Russian victory. But then the Ukrainians unexpectedly won the battle near Kyiv, and later Russia shifted its focus to the Donbass – to the victories in Severdonetsk and Lysichansk. And in recent weeks, there seems to be a turning point again, with the momentum shifting again thanks to new Western military supplies. (HIMARS) to Ukraine – the Russian advance in Donbass has stalled, and now the focus is on the upcoming battle for Kherson, in which Ukraine is expected to go on the offensive.
Second, we know that in the end, much depends on Putin, and the war will end when he decides to stop offensive actions – although he may need to be defeated on the battlefield first. And six months from now, Putin must no doubt be wondering if he can really win this war. And in this case, perhaps, he will insist on the conclusion of a peace agreement in the near future.
I think it’s now clear that Russia has no unlimited options to prolong this conflict, unless Putin is willing to put the Russian economy in full-blown conditions of total war – remember World War II-style general mobilization and a return to state economic planning. I think you could refer to Iraq under Saddam and say, look, he has been at war with Iran for almost a decade. But then Saddam was financed and armed by the countries of the Persian Gulf. And in the case of Russia, the United States has currently restricted its external sources of money or weapons, although it could be helped by rising oil prices. But Putin’s problem is with weapons and troops. By and large, Russia has lost in this conflict there is a huge amount of military equipment and people – probably half of their combat capability.
And it’s hard to make up for it. Russia is running out of stocks of precision-guided missiles and difficult to produce given the ban on Western technology exports to Russia. And China does not want to help Russia in this, although things could change after Pelosi’s idiotic visit.
And when resupplying munitions, HIMARS systems are now having a devastating impact, damaging Russian supply chains that were already vulnerable. If Russia can’t get enough equipment to the front lines, it won’t be able to fight the war. Everything is very simple. But not really.
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