In this campaign, hardly anything other than the corona crisis is discussed, and so the VVD has bombarded the corona policy as a campaign. With outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the party holds the most important asset: a leader in times of crisis. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the popularity of the VVD has been increasing.
It’s a well-known phenomenon. In the event of a sudden national threat from outside, the population supports their government, and in particular the head of government.
That is no different during the corona crisis. In a research from I&O Research, Rutte was awarded a 5.8 at the beginning of March 2020 – just before the first lockdown. In the summer he scored 7.3 – the highest of all party leaders.
“In times of crisis, people choose something they already know,” says Bianca Pander, partner at campaign agency BKB.
This is endorsed by a study by the Social and Cultural Planning Office (SCP). Confidence in politics has never risen so sharply since the corona outbreak.
Press conferences contribute to Prime Minister’s popularity
It is a response to fear and insecurity. According to the SCP, the high visibility of the political leadership in times of crisis also explains the higher appreciation.
The planning bureau explicitly mentions the press conferences with which Rutte and outgoing minister Hugo de Jonge (Public Health) can always count on an audience of millions.
“How is it possible that Rutte can easily get away with the benefits affair?”
Bianca Pander, partner at campaign agency BKB
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Here not only the VVD leader speaks during the campaign, but also the prime minister and crisis fighter. As prime minister, he does not want to magnify the differences, but rather seek the connection.
“That is also problematic”, says Matthijs Rooduijn, political scientist at the University of Amsterdam. “You deprive parties of the opportunity to emphasize those differences. In a democracy, it is essential that voters are well informed about what parties stand for.”
Rutte conducts one low key-countryside
Pander calls it a “low keycampaign “, in which Rutte keeps it as safe as possible.” Rutte is a fantastic debater, but why should he? A hard campaign is not in his interest now, “said Pander.
Topics where things can go hard are the allowance scandal and the slow operation to repair the damage caused by the gas quakes in Groningen.
Lodewijk Asscher (former PvdA leader) and Eric Wiebes (former VVD minister) did resign because of their involvement in the benefits affair. Pander: “How is it possible that Rutte gets away with it like that? It is one of the most bizarre examples of how the government has turned against its citizens.”
The campaign strategist knows how she would attack Rutte politically. “I would tackle him more on the dents he sustained. Not on corona, he got the good score for that. Especially in the benefits affair and the Groningen dossier. People have been in trouble for years, but still have not been helped. Go to those people and show the suffering on screen. “
VVD has a big problem when Rutte stops
The VVD campaign relies entirely on Rutte. Given its popularity, that is not surprising, but it could break up the party in the future. “If Rutte quits, the VVD will have a very big problem. It can quickly go downhill for the party,” says Rooduijn.
But Rutte is not yet thinking about quitting. Not only has he been a familiar face to voters for more than ten years as prime minister, he is now also the one who is leading the Netherlands through the crisis. A double bonus.
“The point is: with Rutte you get the VVD as a gift”
Lilian Marijnissen, SP leader
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The competition sees it with sorrow. Corona controls this campaign and Rutte is the face with the largest podium. They can hardly use the topic that dominates this campaign against whoever benefits most from it.
Competition struggles, criticism does not stick
You see party leaders struggle with how they want to approach Rutte. Gert-Jan Segers (ChristenUnie), Lilianne Ploumen (PvdA) and Lilian Marijnissen (SP) are trying through the VVD and leave the prime minister out of harm’s way.
“Mark Rutte has been there for ten years and we have to get through this crisis. But the point is: with Mark Rutte you get the VVD as a gift”, said Marijnissen against NU.nl.
CDA leader Wopke Hoekstra made several attempts to dismiss Rutte as “unbelievable” and “visionless”. D66 leader Sigrid also blamed Rutte lack of vision, specifically on education and climate. But the VVD member did not respond and the accusations did not stick.
‘Rutte goes with the flow, he meanders’
In the Rutte area, it is recognized that he lacks a long-term vision.
“He thinks about the short term and is not concerned with what he wants to do in ten years,” says a well-informed source within the party, who only wants to say something about the prime minister on the basis of anonymity.
A lack of vision does not have to be a criticism at all from this source. Because although Hoekstra called Rutte a “directionless liberal”, Rutte has been in the saddle for ten years. “Rutte goes with the flow. He meanders. If you take small steps every time, you are always flexible.”
“Rutte is good at saying sorry and gets away with it”
Matthijs Rooduijn, UvA political scientist
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Strategically bending to attract more voters
Rutte succeeds in retaining the core of his supporters, says Rooduijn. “He can bend in different directions ideologically without alienating anyone.”
The political scientist did research to the VVD voters. In general, the voters do not differ much from other parties, they are slightly higher educated and are more likely to be middle-aged (35-64 years).
Rooduijn did see a striking development: VVD voters in the field of immigration from the right flank have moved further and further to other parties over the years, in 2020 the difference was even “no longer significant”.
A possible explanation is that some of the culturally more right-wing voters have defected to Forum for Democracy.
“That is remarkable, because we have seen Rutte take strict positions in that area in recent years. Take, for example, the ‘pleur op’ statement against Turkish-Dutch people,” says Rooduijn.
According to the political scientist, this is a typical example of “strategic bending” in order to attract more voters.
‘VVD wants to get rid of rich people’s image’
It may explain why the VVD election manifesto differs so much from the previous one. At some points the party has moved to the left.
The VVD was seen as a friend of the multinationals. Especially after the intention to use the dividend tax to abolish it, a plan that ultimately failed.
Rooduijn: “The VVD is still there for the companies, but they are less pronounced on that now. They want to get rid of the image that they are only there for the rich.”
How Rutte exactly managed to appeal to such a large group of voters remains partly a guess. Rooduijn: “Things slide off him easily, the well-known Teflon layer. He is good at saying sorry and gets away with it.”
We are happy to help you make your choice.
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