If the presidential election is traditionally the one that most mobilizes French voters, it could be that abstention is higher this year than usual. Blame it on a lackluster context, both in the long and the short term. Explanations.
For several weeks, if not several months, observers and politicians have been raising a concerted cry of alarm: given the context, the first round of the next presidential election could be marked by a very strong abstention.
But what are we really talking about? What is a high level of abstention for a presidential election? Response elements.
Traditionally, the presidential election is a mobilizing ballot
If certain uncertainties rightly hover over the ballot and its result, two weeks before the opening of the polling stations, one thing seems more or less certain: the rate of abstention which will be observed at the end of the first round of the he presidential election will not reach the heights of the last elections to date, those of the last two years.
Firstly because, marked by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic (municipal 2020) or by its consequences (regional and departmental 2021), these had experienced exceptionally low participation rates, close to the statistical anomaly (44.6% for the municipal elections in 2020 and 33.2% for the regional and departmental elections in 2012). We should therefore not see these very low participation figures any longer.
But above all, the presidential election is traditionally the one which, in French political life, mobilizes the most. This is among others what the following graph shows.
The disaster scenario of a turnout dropping below 50% or 40%, as was the case in the 2020 and 2021 elections, therefore seems ruled out.
But abstention in the presidential election is on the rise again
But the vote could however see abstention peak at levels, if not unprecedented, at least very rare.
Why ? Because for nearly 20 years, this decline in participation in presidential elections has been a major trend.
Read also: Low turnout, abstention… but how to restore the taste for voting?
The following graph thus shows that, since the burst of 2007 (itself following the collapse of 2002), the number of voters going to the polls during the first round of the presidential election has been in constant decline.
The context of 2022 not favorable to a massive mobilization
The election of 10 and 24 April next should not escape this dynamic, marked by a certain lack of democratic inertia. Because, in the opinion of all, the candidates had difficulty in attracting the attention of their potential voters, in a context, it is true, not very promising for the national political debates.
“We talk about Ukraine and the Covid, but not or very little about purchasing power, which is nevertheless their main concern”, summarized on March 22 Mathieu Gallard, pollster from the Ipsos institute, on France Info . And indeed, while the surge in fuel prices may have provoked some debates and proposals, the attention of followers and voters remains largely focused on the geopolitical or military consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.
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Furthermore, according to political scientist Jérôme Sainte-Marie, questioned by Europe 1 March 27, “the fact that the President of the Republic has not really descended into the arena […] obviously complicates the course of the campaign”. Because although officially a candidate since the beginning of March, the President of the Republic has so far only led a sporadic campaign, and the rare high masses he has organized have hardly marked the spirits on the merits .
Finally, this year, the election will take place during school holidays, which can also have an influence on participation.
In short, the 2022 campaign, that some may have found disappointingaccumulates the elements suggesting that it will materialize, on the evening of the first round, by a significant abstention.
First negative signals
Fact, the latest electoral survey conducted by the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof) shows that, at this stage, the proportion of French people who say they are certain to vote is lower than 5 years ago (78% against 82%).
And most of the surveys carried out on the subject draw the same conclusion: for the moment, the French are less motivated to go to the polls than in the past. And there are only two weeks left for the candidates to try to make them change their minds.
A significant political impact
However, for some of them, this work of conviction of the abstentionists proves to be decisive. Because abstention is a phenomenon that does not affect the entire population in a uniform way.
The latest Cevipof survey thus shows that young people and working classes are less sure of going to vote than retirees and CSP +.
Above all, not all electorates are mobilized in the same way: if 79% of French people claiming to be close to the majority are certain to go to the polls, only 68% are on the left, or 73% on the National rally.
Proof of this is that, in the XXIe century, the reserves of votes are found first among the abstentionists.
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