In Sweden, the chief of defense has had to explain on children’s TV that Swedes must be prepared that there MAY be war (see clip further down in this article).
The Norwegian authorities do not go that far.
But the signal is that it HAS become more dangerous around us.
– Unfortunately, the development has gone in the wrong direction. It is a more dangerous situation now than it was at the start of 2023, says chief Nils Andreas Stensønes in the Norwegian intelligence service.
He points out that Ukraine is under greater pressure. Russia’s economy is doing better than they had expected.
The security authorities in Norway are holding a joint press conference today, each presenting their threat assessment.
– Russia is stronger in the war now than a year ago, and is in the process of gaining an upper hand, says Stensønes at the press conference on Monday.
Nils Andreas Stensønes, head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service. Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen in the background.
Photo: Vidar Ruud / NTB
– So we now see clearer cooperation between non-democratic nations, which want to challenge the West’s dominance, as they call it, he says.
At the same time, the war in Gaza has created uncertainty for developments throughout the Middle East.
– The war in Ukraine will be decisive
The Norwegian Intelligence Service’s report “Focus” is one of three public threat and risk assessments that are published in the first quarter of each year. The others are issued by the Police’s security service and the National Security Authority.
“Russian military production is going full steam ahead, and China, Belarus, Iran and North Korea are providing significant material support.
Russia is stronger in the war than a year ago, and Russian military power remains the looming military threat to Norway’s sovereignty, population, territory, central social functions and infrastructure,” writes the E-service.
Before, Norway was considered a friendly neighbor for Russia. Now this has changed, and Norway is considered part of the hostile West.
Stensønes highlights the harsh rhetoric from Russia, particularly towards Sweden and Finland. The country has also tried to send refugees and migrants towards Finland, he says.
– So we have to be prepared for a good number of complex measures. But also the threat of the use of military force depending on how the war in Ukraine goes, says Stensønes.
In the short term, he believes that Russia has had more than enough with the war in Ukraine, and that they have no capacity or interest in the conflict spreading now.
But if Russia wins, the picture will be different, the E service believes.
– The war in Ukraine is going to be quite decisive. A Russia that has gained control of the economy, gained momentum in the armaments industry and is successful militarily, will probably have greater faith in the use of military power than a Russia that comes out of the war without having been particularly successful, says Stensønes.
The conclusion in the E-service’s report is clear: “Norway is facing a more serious threat picture than in decades”.
Believes the West stands together
– Many will think that we are now seeing the prelude to World War 3 when major nations all build up militarily?
– We have to be honest and say that it is a more dangerous security policy situation, and there has been a negative development since 2023 when it comes to threats to Norway and Europe. But then it is also important to point out that something very positive has happened, says Stensønes, and explains:
– Swedish and Finnish NATO membership has definitely strengthened Norwegian security, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also brought the West closer together. It also helps to strengthen Nato, and it helps to strengthen Norwegian security.
The Swedish defense chief Micael Bydén talks about war in SVT’s children’s program Lilla Aktuelt.
He points out that Norway, unlike Ukraine, is a NATO member. Article 5, stating that an attack on one NATO country shall be considered an attack on all, is considered the core of the agreement:
This is considered such a deterrent for another country that the risk of an attack on a NATO country is considered small.
– Norway is a safe country, and the risk of a regular invasion is low. But we must be prepared for greater uncertainty. So we have to watch more closely, and we have to be able to react faster than was necessary a few years ago, concludes Stensønes.
Thinks China and Russia will recruit in Norway
PST is the security service in Norway that is responsible for threats against Norway on Norwegian soil.
In its report “National threat assessment” it is stated that Russia will pose the biggest intelligence threat in 2024, PST believes. They believe certain targets are particularly vulnerable:
- Actors working on arms donation and training of Ukrainian personnel
- Businesses linked to the oil and gas industry
- Norwegian technology with civil and military utility
- Norwegian defense and allied military activities in Norway
Like the E-service, PST believes that Russia can carry out physical or digital sabotage actions against Norway.
“Russia’s overall goal with a possible sabotage action will probably be to improve the country’s position in the war in Ukraine. If Russia is in a pressured situation on the ground in Ukraine, the probability of a sabotage action will be greater,” writes PST.
Among current targets for possible sabotage, PST singles out Norwegian gas exports and weapons donation and training of Ukrainian personnel.
China also emerges as a significant intelligence threat in the report.
“We expect the threat to increase over the next few years. This is mainly due to the deteriorating relationship between China and the West, China’s desire for increased control over supply chains and positioning in the Arctic”, writes PST about Chinese intelligence.
PST manager Beate Gangås.
Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
According to PST, China largely uses intermediaries, Chinese companies, organisations, academic institutions and think tanks in the intelligence activities in Norway.
PST believes that foreign intelligence in particular will try to recruit sources in Norway, and carry out cyber operations with the aim of creating uncertainty in society and gathering information.
“We expect that Russia and China will carry out the most attempts to obtain Norwegian goods and technology in covert ways in 2024. The aim will be to strengthen their own military”, writes PST further.
2024-02-12 10:14:59
#eservice #threat #picture #decades
