Wednesday morning, in a hotel in downtown Montreal, volunteers and employees of the Peter MacKay campaign are already at work. The desks are filled with maps and lists. Their headquarters for the Quebec metropolis is here.
In a race where no one seems to be able to predict the outcome, every effort counts.
I will continue to work until the end. It is necessary to play very hard until the third period and even more
, explains Peter MacKay, who was tipped to be the leader at the start of the race.
He now displays cautious confidence.
His main opponent, Erin O’Toole, is much more confident.
[sic] now thanks to my team and I’m confident about Sunday’s results “,” text “:” We have a lot of momentum [sic] now thanks to my team and I am confident about the results of Sunday “}}” lang = “fr”>We have a lot of momentum [sic] now thanks to my team and I’m confident about Sunday’s results
, launches Mr. O’Toole, who speaks to us from a guest room he has set up at his home and where he has held most of his 500 virtual meetings.
Both concede, the pandemic has complicated the race. The party first suspended her, before postponing the date of the vote.
The traditional recipe for a leadership race has been replaced by new strategies to reach as many activists as possible.
Acrimonious attacks
This virtual environment has been fertile for slippages: personal attacks and accusations of data theft that have led to a police complaint.
This is unheard of
, says Éric Montigny, professor of political science at Laval University.
A leadership race leaves its mark, but when attacks are more personal, more virulent, it is of course more difficult to work together.
, he adds.
There were low blows and we can see the tensions
, supports ex-conservative strategist Yan Plante.
The two main candidates recognize the importance of uniting the party immediately after the election of the new leader.
Monday morning the winner will have to call on the other candidates to begin our party’s reunification efforts
, explains Peter MacKay, who recalls his leading role in the creation in 2003 of the modern Conservative Party.
I invested a lot of political capital [sic] in my life on it. It is a question of democracy to have an alternative, it is the highest priority for me.
O’Toole. We have a national unity crisis. We start with a united team and, after that, we will have policies for a united nation. “,” Text “:” Our party must remain united, says O’Toole. We have a national unity crisis. We start with a united team and, after that, we will have policies for a united nation. “}}” Lang = “fr”>Our party must stay united, says O’Toole. We have a national unity crisis. We start with a united team and, after that, we will have policies for a united nation.
The two promise that they can work together.
Peter MacKay wants to introduce himself probably in his riding
in Nova Scotia, even if he loses the race.
I finished third [lors de la dernière course au leadership] and I worked hard for Andrew Scheer; i will have an approach like this again
, says Mr. O’Toole.
A tight race
A clear result on Sunday evening could facilitate the work of unity, explains Yan Plante. Conversely, a tight score after several rounds could contribute to tensions.
If the person who finishes second feeds that frustration or if the person who finishes first does not offer something interesting to the one who finishes second, we will consolidate the current tensions. Then the happiest person in all of this is going to be Prime Minister Trudeau.
A few hours from the end of the race, it’s very smart who can predict who will win.
When you talk to people from both camps, they are confident, which reflects that the race is very close or that one of the two camps is in the field.
, explains Yan Plante.
The complexity of the electoral system of a Conservative Party race means that if a candidate has more votes at the end, that does not mean that he will have the most points.
, he specifies.
And that can cause surprises.
In recent weeks, Leslyn Lewis has had the wind in its sails, according to several observers.
Plant. It has a path to victory which is unlikely, but possible. “,” Text “:” It’s a bit of the anti-establishment vote, says Plante. It has a path to victory which is unlikely, but possible. “}}” Lang = “en”>It’s a bit like the anti-establishment vote, says Plante. His victory is unlikely, but possible.
Ms Lewis and Derek Sloan, also a candidate, both declined our interview requests.
How does the ballot work?
The Conservatives have a somewhat complex formula for choosing a new leader.
It is a preferential vote. Members will be asked to rank their preferred candidates from first to fourth. If a candidate does not obtain a majority after a round, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated. The party will distribute the second choice among the other candidates, and so on, until one candidate obtains the majority of the points.
But be careful, everything is calculated according to a point system and not by attributing a vote to each member.
Each of the 338 federal ridings is worth 100 points, regardless of the number of members there. To win, a candidate must obtain 16,901 points. Quebec, with its 78 ridings, is therefore worth much more than Saskatchewan (14), Alberta (34) and Manitoba (14), for example, even though these three provinces have many more members.
During the merger between the Progressive Conservative Party (PPC) and the Canadian Alliance, the PPC insisted on this formula in order to ensure that the eastern part of the country could keep its voice in the party. Peter MacKay was then head of the PPC.
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