If it is true that there are more cases of young people infected during the second wave of the pandemic, it is also true that during the first they were more protected. Across Europe, including the UK, schools have closed, moving from face-to-face to distance learning. As the Covid-19 infectious agent became better known, it was possible to notice that the spread among children was lower, that the majority were asymptomatic and that they suffered less from serious illness. Among adolescents, the behavior of the virus was more similar to that of adults.
Schools reopened at the beginning of the school year and no study has come up with scientific evidence that returning to school had increased the spread of coronavirus in the community. Could the new variant – called B.1.1.7 or VUI 202012/01 (variant under investigation) – bring different news?
Speculation, insists the infectologist Francisco Antunes, enumerating the factors that may be the cause of the increase in positive diagnoses. And it starts with the well-known bad English weather.
Children stay out of the Covid-19 vaccination plan. Because?
“How are the weather conditions in the UK at this time of year? There is a drop in temperature, an increase in humidity and this can affect the way the virus spreads ”, defends the retired professor. On the other hand, at this time of year, families naturally spend more time at home, with windows closed because of the cold, which can increase the transmission from parents to children.
It is also necessary to look at another factor: the infectious disease physician remembers that, throughout Europe, the restriction measures have eased and, after the increase in cases, they have become more demanding. “Is the distance, wearing a mask, confinement the same as it was two months ago? All of this has to be seen before it is excluded and before we can say that this variant spreads more quickly. ”
In late autumn, early winter, there is also a greater number of viruses circulating, exactly those that most often cause respiratory diseases in children. “These infections are very similar and we have to be sure that, in fact, the increase in cases has to do with the new strain.” To be absolutely sure, Francisco Antunes argues that comparative studies among children who were infected with this variant and with previous ones would be necessary. Only then can conclusions be reached.
“There was a variant in Europe, which reached the United States, which was admitted to have greater transmissibility. But it disappeared and there was no solid data to maintain the claim, ”recalls the infectologist.
Still, and on the decision of many countries to close the borders with the United Kingdom, he says that it is better to “take measures in excess”.
And is the new variant already in Portugal? “For sure. It is very possible that it is. If there were border restrictions it would be more difficult, but as long as people travel the virus continues. It spreads because there is mobility. If each of us were to stand in our corner, the virus would disappear. ”
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Like Francisco Antunes, many voices in the scientific community remember that, for example, a variant may seem more contagious if it appears in an area with a higher population density or if it benefits from super-disseminating events. “The number of reservoirs [pessoas infetadas] it is bigger in a city and there is more mobility ”, remembers the Portuguese doctor who, despite the caution, does not rule out the hypothesis that evidence will be found that this variant does, in fact, spread more easily. In addition, he recalls, it is normal for the most infectious variants to become dominant.
At Oxford University, Peter Horby, a specialist in infectious diseases, changed his confidence level from moderate to high when he points to the transmissibility of the virus. “We now have great confidence that this variant has a transmission advantage over other virus variants that are currently in the UK,” he said on Monday.
Julian Hiscox, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Liverpool, told the BBC that there is no evidence “at the moment” that the new variant is capable of infecting children more efficiently. At NERVTAG, Wendy Barclay, a specialist in virology at Imperial College, lines up with Neil Ferguson, Dr. Lockdown. The mutations in the new variant are related to the way it binds to human cells, which may mean “that children are perhaps as susceptible to this virus as adults”, and we expect to see more young people infected.
In the face of uncertainty about the new variant – WHO confirmed that nine cases have already been detected in Denmark, one in the Netherlands, one in Italy and one in Australia – the pressure on the Boris Johnson government to close schools has increased. And there is one more fact: in South Africa, a variant with a mutation identical to that found in the United Kingdom (N501Y) also seems to move from host to host more quickly.
So who doesn’t want to wait to see the results on site it is the British teachers’ unions and the National Education Union (NEU) wrote a letter to Boris Johnson asking him to prolong the school closings beyond the Christmas holidays. In Scotland, the decision has already been made and for most students the holidays will be extended by one week until January 11, followed by distance learning until January 15. In Ireland, the general confinement from 24 December to 12 January will be restored, and it is not yet certain whether return to schools is postponed or not.
In London, despite the pressure from the unions to join that of the directors, who also asked for the postponement of the return to face-to-face education, Boris Johnson shows no signs of changing his opinion, but the tone lost the vehemence of other days: “We want , if possible, have the schools back in early January ”, he defended. But common sense, underlined the prime minister, tells us that “we must follow the path of the pandemic”.
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