National Directorate of Animal Production Corrects Methodology for Calculating Meat Sales, Impacting US Beef Market

The National Directorate of Animal Production, of the Ministry of Agriculture, has corrected the methodology for calculating foreign sales of meat, and therefore the calculation of per capita consumption of beef. Since 2019, the category “bones with meat” –resulting from deboning– began to be included in the total exported meat, bones that in 2023 totaled 111 thousand tons, and that in the official record –unlike the majority from other livestock-producing countries – began to be counted as “meat.”

By correcting this methodology, by removing the “bone with meat” from sales abroad and accounting for it separately, the volume of beef exported in 2023 drops from 964 thousand to 853 thousand tons and domestic consumption rises from 49.8 kilos per capita (with the previous methodology) to about 52.2 kilos with the new calculation.

Prices and volumes in the United States

In the first week of February, the price of the 228 kilo winter calf in the Oklahoma market, United States, reached a new record, trading at US$ 7 per live kilo, surpassing the historical maximum achieved in November 2014 The 360-370 kilo steer, rebred, ready to enter the feedlot, reached US$ 5.17 per kilo, still below the record of September 2023, when it was quoted at US$ 5.57 per kilo. kilo.

A breeding cow is worth US$2,400 today. The feedlots are very complicated by the mud and the weather, and the economic results are below expectations. US beef production in 2024 is projected to be 5% lower than last year, adding to the 4.7% drop experienced in 2023.

As a reflection of the shortage of beef, and the rise in domestic livestock and meat prices, import prices are rising; 90% CL meat (manufacturing type) since the beginning of 2024 has risen 10% and now the values ​​paid by the US market are higher than those paid by other markets, especially China.

The North American economy appears surprisingly robust, meat stocks are low, cattle slaughter is falling and North American processors are showing a growing preference for intermediate value cuts (wheel, brisket) for chopping, reflecting the strong demand for meat in general and for hamburgers in particular.

It should be remembered that in the United States no less than 45% of beef is consumed in minced form. “In light of the internal prices that lean cuts for chopping have today, the price of imported manufactured meat still has a significant way to go up. More and more meat is minced, and the volume of cuts imported from Australia, New Zealand and Brazil is proving insufficient. Both Australia and New Zealand, which have large import quotas in the United States with very low tariffs, are increasing their shipments to the US market week by week. Brazil and Paraguay, which export to the United States within the quota of 65 thousand tons of “third countries”, will probably complete the quota early at some point in February, while Argentina – which has 20 thousand tons annually awarded – has been fulfilling this quota. more slowly.

Additional shipments – out of quota – must pay a tariff of 26.4%, which in light of the difference in the value of meat between the two markets (+60%), would not be an obstacle to increasing the volumes sold to United States once the quota is exhausted.

Now that the demand in the United States for manufactured meat is strengthening, it is noted that the domestic demand of Australia, Japan and South Korea for this type of meat is also very firm.

2024-03-09 03:01:00
#Beef #chances #increasing #volume #shipments #United #States #Livestock #voice #interior