Monday, March 9, 2020
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After China, Italy is hardest hit. The number of people suffering from Covid 19 is skyrocketing, more than 350 people have already died from the virus. Doctor Christoph Specht ntv.de explains why the country has been hit so hard and how Germany can escape the same fate.
Italy’s head of government Giuseppe Conte speaks in the newspaper “La Repubblica” of the “darkest hour”: the country has the highest number of documented Covid-19 deaths after China. The country reported 133 new deaths in just one day. Evidence shows that 366 people died. The number of infected people continues to grow rapidly with more than 7,300. As of Friday, there were 4600 according to official data. For comparison: In Germany the number of infected is currently 1150 and three dead, two of them in North Rhine-Westphalia and another who died in Egypt as a result of Covid-19. It is thus far below the number of sick people and deaths in Italy. But how could the virus spread so quickly in Italy? Why are there so many deaths?
The death rate for infected people in Italy is currently just under five percent. It is the highest in the world and even exceeds that of China, which is 3.9 percent. However, the fact that the virus is more aggressive in Italy than in other countries is not the reason, says doctor and medical correspondent Christoph Specht ntv.de. “Viruses are constantly mutating, which is nothing special. However, this does not mean that it has become more dangerous. Nothing would speak for it at this moment.”
Two other scenarios are more likely. “Either the virus affects particularly vulnerable groups in the population, such as the elderly or sick people,” says Specht. The other possible explanation is that the number of people infected is much higher than the official number of people who tested positive for Sars-CoV-2. “It is more likely that the deaths are more accurate than that of the sick. Assuming that there are actually five times as many cases as tested, that would be 36,000 infected people. The death rate would be only one percent . ” According to the doctor, this would be an obvious explanation for the many deaths.
Exclusion zones are not observed
The prison police union speaks of uprisings in 27 detention centers across the country.
(Photo: picture alliance / dpa)
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Italy is also the first European country to be hit hard, says Specht. This is also indirectly related to the rapid spread. “In contrast to Germany, Italy had no warning. After the first one got infected, the virus could spread without taking any hygiene measures.” From the very beginning in Germany, people were asked to wash their hands regularly. “Italy was just unlucky to be the first country in Europe. The instructions came too late there.” Also, it was never completely clear how the first patient got infected. It was no longer possible to reconstruct the infection chain.
Large parts of the north, including cities such as Milan and Venice, have been declared restricted areas. However, many people did not stick to it and took trains towards southern Italy. At the same time, visiting rights were suspended in many prisons. This led to protests with several deaths. Six prisoners died in Modena, several were seriously injured, the media reported, citing the prison administration. More than 50 had tried to escape there.
“We’ll have to live with Covid-19”
According to Specht, in order to avoid an effect in Germany like in Italy, the speed of spread must be slowed down. Overall, the number of infected people does not decrease, but spreads better over a longer period of time and can be managed by the hospitals. “Five percent of 1,000 people infected in a month are less than five percent of 10,000 who need inpatient treatment.” Too many at a time could not intercept our healthcare system and hospitals. Italy is already struggling with this, which could be another reason for the high death rate. “We will have to live with Covid-19. Many Germans will become infected, that cannot be prevented. But the most important thing is that it does not happen too quickly,” says Specht.
Good hygiene is essential for this. Washing your hands regularly and not touching your face can do a lot. As a result, the viruses do not get into the mucous membranes through the mouth, nose or eyes, which prevents infection. “It only turns the bell curve into an elongated flat hill,” says Specht. In this scenario, too, many people become infected, but spread over a longer period of time. Specht believes that the peak of the wave of infections in Italy has not yet been reached.
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